Steve is the creator and owner of Fantasy Guides. He's been a Denver Broncos' fan since 1986 and he's been playing Fantasy Football since 2006. After multiple titles playing in Redraft & Dynasty leagues, he decided he just had to make a living writing about and giving advice on fantasy football. He started Fantasy Guides in 2019 and has been working to perfect his process ever since.
When the draft approached, one player had my undivided attention: Jordan Addison. I had my heart set on seeing him wearing a Chargers jersey, stepping into Keenan Allen's shoes and teaming up with Justin Herbert. However, fate had other plans as Addison landed with the Vikings. This turn of events got me thinking: Did I truly admire Addison, or was it the Chargers' enticing WR spot that captivated me? After conducting thorough research and closely studying game footage, two things became crystal clear: The Chargers offer a promising destination for a rookie receiver, and Quentin Johnston has elevated himself even higher in my estimation.
"His consistent growth throughout his collegiate career, combined with the advantageous circumstance of joining the Chargers, signifies his potential to become a prominent player in the league."
— AJ Clever —
While it may require an early selection in dynasty rookie drafts, I firmly believe that investing in Johnston is a smart decision. He is poised to receive abundant opportunities this season, allowing him to establish himself as a vital component of the Chargers' offense. Furthermore, his consistent growth throughout his collegiate career, combined with the advantageous circumstance of joining the Chargers, signifies his potential to become a prominent player in the league. Quentin Johnston is unquestionably my top choice from this year's rookie class, and I eagerly await his ascent to greatness.
Jordan Addison is easily one of my favorite rookies in the 2023 class. He was a highly productive collegiate receiver, winning the Biletnekoff award in 2021. He caught 100 passes for nearly 1600 yards and 17 touchdowns that year. And while yes, he is a small WR, that hasn’t mattered in the NFL as of late with guys like DeVonta Smith & Hollywood Brown. It won’t matter with Addison.
"Justin Jefferson limits any ceiling that Addison may have had on another team, but that doesn’t mean he can’t still be a high-end WR2 or even low-end WR1 in his rookie season."
— Jacob Rhodes —
#1 Los Angeles Chargers
The dream landing spot for any WR in our opinion. Keenan Allen’s age is showing, Mike Williams can’t stay on the field, and Herbert is going to sling the ball. Praying the Chargers use 1st round capital on a WR.
Last year KC thought they had their guy with Sky Moore. However, the rookie left a lot to be desired. Any WR that is drafted to the team will have an opportunity to be a key player from day 1. Oh and they would have this guy called Patrick Mahomes throwing to them.
#3 Buffalo BillsEveryone wanted the Gabe Davis breakout last year but it just didn’t happen. That means that one of the best offenses with one of the best QBs in the league needs a receiver. Whoever lands here can grow in a great offense and hopefully take the reigns as WR1 as Diggs ages out.
#4 New York GiantsThis is a wide open receiving room. No clear alpha whatsoever. Several rookies could really excel here based on volume alone. And I know it’s Daniel Jones, but he got a good coach and immediately improved as a passer. With a clear cut #1 WR, it would bode well for both parties.
#5 Carolina PanthersThe Panthers are looking like a team who is ready to invest in any rookie they draft. On top of this the Panthers receiving room is pretty empty, outside of an aging Adam Thielen. We also like the idea of a young receiver making an early connection with the rookie QB they draft this year.
Just Missed: Los Angeles Rams
#1 Atlanta Falcons
Last year the Falcons struggled to get the ball to Kyle Pitts and Drake London. While there has been a QB change since then, Desmond Ridder has not proven to be a guy to feed several receivers. Until this changes, we don’t want to see a receiver going there.
#2 Tennessee Titans
Tennessee’s QB situation raises questions about the potential for a newcomer to emerge as a top fantasy football performer. Their offense also places a heavy emphasis on Derrick Henry, which could make it challenging for a rookie receiver to find success. Because of this, the Titans may not be the ideal landing spot for a budding fantasy football star.
#3 New Orleans Saints
The Saints are an organization that is constantly striving to be average and Derek Carr is perfect for that. Carr can 100% support a WR1 but Olave is one of the best young WRs in the NFL. Whoever goes there will be stuck behind that Ohio State wideout and Micahel Thomas who is old but will still command targets. Just can’t imagine this offense supports a ton of pass catchers.
#4 San Francisco 49ers
Deebo, Aiyuk, Kittle, and CMC all taking passes away on a run first team leaves very little room for opportunities for any rookie WR that may end up on this team. Hopefully the 49ers don’t bury a beloved rookie on the depth chart, but it’s possible and we don’t like it.
#5 Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles offense is an enormous and delicious pie to divvy up. Unfortunately, there are some very big men already consuming that pie. Even JSN would be buried as the WR3 on this team. The Eagles also will run the ball a ton and Hurts will still yards and TDs himself. Simply too many mouths to feed in the city of brotherly love.
Just Missed: Denver Broncos
Please don’t do it Seattle. Don’t spend high draft capital on an RB. Kenneth Walker is the guy here and it’d be hard to imagine any rookie having any success in this offense anytime soon.
#2 Detroit LionsGreat offensive line, RB friendly scheme, but a backfield that doesn’t have room for a Rookie. David Montgomery just signed a 3 year deal and D’Andre Swift is in town for at least 2023. Hard to imagine we’d see fantasy production from a rookie RB for Detroit in year 1.
#3 Houston TexansThe Texans currently have two solid running backs with Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary. Ant RB that the Texans draft will face strong competition in order to get opportunities. On top of this, the Texans have the 25th ranked offensive line which is not something we are looking for in a landing spot for a rookie.
#4 San Francisco 49ersWill we see San Fran go back to back to back years drafting an RB in the 3rd round? I hope not. This backfield is set in stone for the next couple years and there’s simply no room for a rookie RB.
#5 Pittsburgh SteelersThe Steelers have the third worst offensive line in the league. Not really the welcoming committee you want for a rookie running back. Along with the poor O-line leading the way, any rookie that is drafted to the Steelers will have to compete with Najee Harris for snaps.
The Bengals currently have a thin RB room which is led by the aging Joe Mixon. Joe Mixion is likely on his way out of town in the next year leaving the RB1 spot vacant for a rookie to take over. The Bengals have a top 10 offensive line which will help create opportunities for any running back that will be drafted to the team.
#2 Miami DolphinsMike McDaniel made a career backup and a 30 year old RB look like fantasy gold. Whatever back goes to Miami is immediately thrown into one of the more open backfields in the NFL. Not to mention that Miami has one of the best offenses in the league and Mike Mcdaniel is a run game guru.
#3 Kansas City ChiefsThis one just seemed obvious. It is good to play RB in an offense that has Patrick Mahomes running it. We keep seeing RBs be successful in KC even though they are average backs at best. Pacheco is there but with 7th rd. capital he could be easily replaced.
#4 Buffalo BillsShocker! You should want a RB that will be in a good offense. The Bills haven’t produced a stud fantasy RB in a while but this backfield has been led by Devin Singletary. Singletary is gone leaving some competition in James Cook and Damien Harris. Luckily Harris is on just a 1 year deal and Cook doesn't profile as a workhorse. Also, there’s growing talks that Josh Allen could and should start running less and letting his backs do more.
#5 Chicago BearsThe Bears have one of those backfields that several talented rookies could take over. There’s especially room for production if they draft a receiving back, something they lack right now. The Bears will have an improved offensive line in 2023 and will continue to be a run first team, making them a quality landing spot for Rookie RBs.
Just Missed — Philadelphia Eagles
Philly showed last season why they had the best offensive line in the league. The combination of Hurts and the Philly running back committee combined for 2,505 rushing yards and 31 rushing touchdowns, with over 1,200 of those yards and 11 of those touchdowns belonging to the recently departed Miles Sanders. On short yardage the unit proved impossible to stop. Hurts will still vulture rushing touchdowns, but there will still be plenty of yards and touchdowns to go around for any replacement they bring in.
If you like an underdog story, Tucker Kraft is your man. Kraft is a TE out of South Dakota State. He was born and raised in the Mount Rushmore State. He’s from the town of Timber Lake, South Dakota which has a population of 500. At Timber Lake High School, the young Tucker Kraft played running back, middle linebacker, and punter. NOT tight end. Once Kraft suited up as a Jackrabbit at SDSU he established himself as one of the most exciting and athletic tight ends in this 2023 NFL Draft.
"He’ll prove himself as a highly effective target in the passing game, and if he runs with the same confidence he had in college, we’ll see him develop into an every down role in the NFL in no time."
— Jacob Rhodes —
Kraft checks nearly all of the boxes I want to see in a TE profile. He has size, speed, production, and he should get draft solid draft capital. Kraft’s profile is nearly as complete as other TE prospects that will go in the late first to the early second round of Dynasty Rookie Mock Drafts. If the former Jackrabbit can find himself in a solid landing spot he could force himself into being talked about in the same conversations as Dalton Kincaid and Michael Mayer. Some mock drafts have Kraft sneaking into the early second round of the NFL draft. Kraft has the athleticism and YAC ability to eventually one day shine as a solid fantasy option. All of this and he may go in the 3rd or 4th round of your rookie draft.
Luke Musgrave is at the top of a strong tier 2 of rookie tight ends. He’s a big and athletic receiving TE that can threaten defenses down the field, right up the seem. The only issue with Musgrave, is that we are working off a small sample size. He came out of the gates in 2022 hot, but his season ended after just 2 games with a knee injury. In the 2 games, he posted the highest yards per route run amongst all TEs (3.52 yards), and ranked at the top in target share (31.3%). Again, small sample size, but he was the staple for the Oregon State offense.
"He’ll prove himself as a highly effective target in the passing game, and if he runs with the same confidence he had in college, we’ll see him develop into an every down role in the NFL in no time."
— Jacob Rhodes —
While it’s unfortunate that we didn’t get more games from Musgrave, he did get a chance to play at the senior bowl and perform at the combine. Both of which went well in his favor. He looked the part in the senior bowl and then performed in the 86th percentile at the combine. Again, showing how versatile he can be as an in-line TE at the next level. At 6’6” and 253 lbs, with a 4.6 40 and 36” vertical, you can understand why, at the very least, Musgrave will be a red-zone threat in the NFL.
As far as rookie TEs go, we’re just looking for long-term upside. It’s extremely rare we see any production from TEs out of the gate in year 1 or 2. So if you’re taking a shot on one in dynasty, take a shot late, and take a shot on a guy, that at the very least, can/will catch touchdowns. Big and athletic receiving Tight Ends are the best bet there, and Musgrave is just that. He’s purely upside, but at his current 3rd round rookie draft ADP, that’s exactly what you should be looking for. Well worth that draft price as a stash play in your dynasty league.
Fantasy football enthusiasts are abuzz about whether Tight Ends should be included as a position in leagues. I’m personally a big Tight End guy and I firmly believe they should. With this year's rookie class showing promise, there's one player who could be a game-changer for your fantasy team: Will Mallory.
"He's a solid receiver who can make catches in traffic and has a knack for finding open space down field."
— AJ Clever —
Mallory made a name for himself during his five-year stint at Miami University, racking up an impressive 115 receptions for 1,544 yards and 14 touchdowns. His standout season in 2022 saw him tally 42 receptions for 538 yards and 3 touchdowns. At the combine, Mallory blazed a 40 time of 4.54, outpacing all other Tight Ends. His speed is a major asset, allowing him to gain yards after catches and zoom down the field on routes.
When studying Mallory’s film, two things were apparent: he’s not a blocking Tight End, but he has impeccable footwork. His play style is similar to Mike Gesicki’s, with the ability to roll out for quick yardage or run routes downfield. Although his inability to make crucial blocks could impact his draft stock, it won’t hinder his fantasy potential. Tight Ends earn points from receptions, not blocks. Mallory's elusiveness makes him a difficult player to defend against, as he can create separation from defenders and break tackles after receiving the ball.
What sets Mallory apart from his peers is his versatility. He's a solid receiver who can make catches in traffic and has a knack for finding open space down field. He's also a reliable option for dump-off passes, as he has the agility and acceleration to turn those plays into big gains. Mallory's athleticism and speed make him a formidable weapon in any offensive scheme, and he has the potential to become a starting Tight End in the NFL.
Although Mallory is a promising rookie, there are areas where he needs to improve to succeed at the next level. Specifically, he'll need to focus on improving his route-running and blocking skills. Additionally, it would be great to see an increase in red zone targets and touchdowns during his rookie season. Despite these areas of improvement, Mallory has the potential to be a valuable addition to your fantasy team this season. Keep a close eye on him as he transitions into the NFL.
This season is shaping up to be a big one for my dynasty team, as I'm faced with the challenge of two aging running backs in Derrick Henry and Austin Ekeler. While I'm hoping to get a few more productive seasons out of these veteran players, I know that I need to start looking towards the future. While watching film there was one running back that especially caught my eye. This running back was Eric Gray.
"He has an impressive ability to bounce off tackles and stay on his feet, making him a constant threat to break a big play."
— AJ Clever —
Gray played two seasons at Tennessee before transferring to Oklahoma for the final two years of his collegiate career. Over four seasons, he established himself as a dynamic and versatile running back, rushing for an impressive 3,089 yards and 21 touchdowns, while also catching 99 passes for 827 yards and 5 touchdowns. At the NFL Combine, Gray measured in at 5'9 1/2" and weighed 207 lbs. While he didn't run the 40-yard dash, he recorded a broad jump of 9'10" and a vertical jump of 37.5".
In college, Gray was not known for being the best blocker. Despite being criticized for his blocking ability and lack of power, Gray's elusiveness and agility make him a valuable asset on any team. He has a knack for evading defenders and picking up extra yards, often making them miss altogether with his quick footwork. While he may not be the fastest player on the field, his ability to make sharp cuts and change direction on a dime allows him to pick up 10-20 yard gains with ease.
Another aspect of Gray's game that stands out is his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. His 99 receptions and average of 8.4 yards per catch show that he's a versatile weapon who can contribute to the passing game as well.
One thing that sets Gray apart from other running backs in the league is his ability to maintain his elusiveness even when defenders close in on him. He has an impressive ability to bounce off tackles and stay on his feet, making him a constant threat to break a big play. While he may not have the raw power to bulldoze through defenders, his agility and quickness allow him to be a constant thorn in the side of opposing defenses.
Watching Gray's film, it's clear that he's a dual threat who can contribute in a variety of ways. He's a player who's always looking for a way to make a big play, and his versatility makes him an ideal candidate for any team looking to add depth to their running back position. With his combination of speed, agility, and receiving ability, Eric Gray is a player who's worth keeping an eye on in any league's draft.
Evan Hull is a great overall talent at the running back position in this year's draft class. He has solid mass and an ability to become a reliable 3rd down running back in the NFL, which is exactly why I want to mention him as a sleeper in 2023.
"He’ll prove himself as a highly effective target in the passing game, and if he runs with the same confidence he had in college, we’ll see him develop into an every down role in the NFL in no time."
— Jacob Rhodes —
Hull ranks in the 96th percentile in college target share, racking up 88 receptions and over 800 yards through the air in his final 2 years as a starter at Northwestern. These are rare receiving numbers to see from college running backs, especially ones that are over the coveted 200 lb mark. At 5’10” 210 lbs, Hull not only will excel as a pass catcher in the NFL, but could very well develop into an every down back.
He has good vision as a runner and excels at cutting through lanes and bouncing off tackles. He’s not a traditional Yards After Contact guy, but with smart running, I believe he can expose soft spots in defenses. He has a low number of career touches and can use those fresh legs to his advantage. At a minimum, we should see him serve as a rotational piece on 1st and 2nd downs.
Again, I’m not worried about the 1st and 2nd down work. That’ll naturally come for him as I think he will excel in a 3rd down role. Something we see players develop through all the time and use as a way to earn more time on the field. He’ll prove himself as a highly effective target in the passing game, and if he runs with the same confidence he had in college, we’ll see him develop into an every down role in the NFL in no time. Draft capital will mean a lot for Hull, but I’d be worried about the starting RB’s ceiling for the team Hull lands on.
I’ve already gone to this well once in a sleeper article about a month ago, but I gotta go back to it because it makes my lips tingle. Israel Abanikanda has a real shot at being this years Isiah Pacheco. He and Pacheco both dabble in just putting their heads down and plowing into their O-Line to force a gap. However, what makes Pacheco so successful is that he’s an angry runner with one-cut, finishing speed. That's exactly what Abanikanda provides but Izzy has stats that should stop him from being a 7th rounder.
"His film says he can house a 60-yarder and make a fantasy week in one play. You can’t ask for much more from a dude who’s going in the 2nd or 3rd round of your rookie drafts."
— Andrew Teuscher —
The Pittsburgh RB put up 1,431 rushing yards (14th in FBS) and 20 rushing TDs which led the nation. He had more rushing yards than guys like Zach Charbonet and Sean Tucker, and was more efficient than Blake Corum and Deuce Vaughn. He had 100 rushing yards in 9 out of the 11 games he suited up in. The “Problem out of Pittsburgh” slapped what his mother gave him on the table when he put up a massive 320 yard and 6 TD performance against Virginia Tech. Yet people aren’t talking about him enough.
Abanikanda checks so many boxes. He had a decent 6.2% target share but showed he was certainly capable of being a passing down back. At 5’11”, 216 lbs he carries enough size to truly lead a backfield. He’s also got the speed to make someone pay when they don’t bring him down in space. Not to mention he declared early and is only 20 years old.
I really don’t think he’ll be a top-15 dynasty RB, but his profile says its not out of the question. His film says he can house a 60-yarder and make a fantasy week in one play. You can’t ask for much more from a dude who’s going in the 2nd or 3rd round of your rookie drafts.
One thing I enjoy about fantasy football is discovering a new rookie wide receiver to root for every year. Two years ago, I fell in love with Jaylen Waddle. Last year, it was George Pickens. This year that receiver might just also be my sleeper pick, Jonathan Mingo. While many people may not be familiar with him, Mingo played four years at Ole Miss and put up some impressive stats. Over his collegiate career, he averaged at least 14 yards per catch. In his final season, that average jumped to an impressive 16.9 yards, and he scored touchdowns on 10% of his receptions.
"Mingo may not be the fastest receiver, but his physicality and ability to make contested catches make up for it."
— AJ Clever —
However, there are two areas where I would like to see improvement in Mingo's rookie season. The first is volume. During his last season at Ole Miss, Mingo only averaged 4.25 catches per game, and I believe that he will need to increase that number to become more relevant in fantasy football. Additionally, Mingo tends to catch the ball with his chest, which is something he can work on, especially given his large hands. You know what they say about big hands… great football catching ability.
Mingo's measurements at the combine were impressive. He stands 6'2" tall and weighs 220 pounds, with an arm length of 31 ⅛ inches and a hand width of 10 ⅜ inches. He also impressed with a 40-time of 4.46 seconds. Furthermore, he completed 22 bench press reps. Mingo may not be the fastest receiver, but his physicality and ability to make contested catches make up for it. He is known for his strong upper and lower body strength, which allows him to fight for contested balls and gain crucial yards after contact. I am excited to see where Mingo goes, and I believe he has the potential to be a breakout star among this year's rookie receivers.
Penn State just keeps churning out quality NFL WRs and they’ve got another one in Parker Washington. Washington had a breakout season in his True Freshman year at 18 (this means he accounted for at least 20% of his teams passing attack). He did this while competing for targets against Jahan Dotson and Pat Freiermuth. In his Sophomore and Junior seasons, Washington never erupted for a huge year, but he kept producing in a lackluster Penn State passing offense.
"Washington is made for today’s NFL as a possession WR who does so much after the catch."
— Andrew Teuscher —
Washington’s play style will play perfectly in the NFL too. At 5’10” 207lbs you’d think that Washington was a RB if you saw him just standing on the sidelines. Washington is built low to the ground like Ferrari, but he lays out punishment like he’s a jacked up pick up truck. He truly has shades of Deebo Samuel in his game.
He is also not one to disappear in the big games. He became the 2nd Penn State WR to put up multiple 100 yards receiving games against Ohio State. This included a dominant 179 yard performance as a parting gift in his Junior season. He also had two 90+ yard games against Michigan just to show that he owns the Big 10.
Washington is made for today’s NFL as a possession WR who does so much after the catch. I think he’s even got the best hands in the class after watching him layout out for some tough ones. The Penn State WR is probably going in 3rd round region of the NFL draft. This is exactly where you see quality NFL slot guys go. This and the low production because he played with NFL talent, will get your leaguemates off of him. I promise you that NFL draft capital at the WR position doesn’t mean nearly as much as it does at other positions. Look for Washington to be a solid PPR monster in the NFL.
Puka Nacua has all of the traits you want to see in an NFL wide receiver. Great on contested catches, excels creating separation down the field, physically dominant presence, and is a HIGHLY capable rusher. At 6’2”, 201 lbs, he managed to notch 5 rushing touchdowns in his final season at BYU and averaged over 9 yards per carry in his career. And while missing 3 games in 2022, he still led his team in receptions and yards. Making him a massive dual-threat type WR, a Deebo-type WR, that can really produce for fantasy football.
"Puka is one of those physically dominant WRs that pops off the screen that I just do not want to leave rookie drafts without."
— Jacob Rhodes —
He did not compete in the NFL Combine, but we did get to see him at the Senior Bowl and he did nothing short of impress. Did a great job separating, and was patient with his route running, exposing holes in defenses left and right. He especially shined on 50/50 balls where he simply caught everything thrown his way. Has a real knack for attacking the ball at the high point and going up with strong hands to make sure there’s no doubt he’s coming down with the ball.
Puka is one of those physically dominant WRs that pops off the screen that I just do not want to leave rookie drafts without. NFL coaches have been more and more willing to incorporate these dual threat WRs into their schemes, so I have no doubt that he’ll land somewhere that’ll maximize his talents. He currently sits as the consensus WR16 right now (40th overall), a more than fair price for someone with upside as a rusher and receiver.
Throughout the offseason, we will be providing opinionated articles on fantasy players who are ranked very closely in our overall dynasty rankings. This article is about which Rookie QB should be drafted first in dynasty rookie drafts. Have some players you want featured next? Comment below and we may just feature them in our next article.
Instead of answering who the Rookie QB1 is, let me ask you some questions. Would you rather drive a sexy corvette or a Toyota Camry? Would you rather dominate your friends in fantasy football or are you just hoping to not get last? If you’re hoping to dominate your league, then Anthony Richardson needs to be your QB1.
Perennial QB1s need to have rushing upside or be one of the best passers in the league. Bryce Young isn’t Jared Goff but he’s not mobile. 10 out of the top 12 QBs (ppg) last year had 300 rushing yards or more in at least one season in their college careers. Bryce Young did not hit this mark. Byrce Young is too little to run.
"To keep it as simple as possible, it makes sense that a dude who’s 6’4” 244 lbs and runs a 4.43, will have an easier time being fantasy relevant than Bryce Young."
— Andrew Teuscher, Fantasy Guides —
Without the rushing, the upside just isnt’ there. 8 out of the top 12 QBs had 350+ rushing yards. In order for Bryce Young or CJ Stroud to be elite fantasy options they have to be Mahomes or Burrow. Patty averaged 308 yds/game and 41 tds. and Burrow averaged 279 with 35 tds. In order for Richardson to be elite he needs to be Lamar Jackson or Justin Fields. Jackson averaged 186 yds/game with 17 tds and Fields averaged 149 yds/game with 17 tds. Richardson isn’t a polished passer but he DOESN’T NEED TO BE. If Young is a miss he’s not going to be startable. If Richarson is a bust he’ll still be fantasy relevant for 2-3 years with his legs.
To keep it as simple as possible, it makes sense that a dude who’s 6’4” 244 lbs and runs a 4.43, will have an easier time being fantasy relevant than Bryce Young who is 5’10” and definitely does not play at the 204 lbs he weighed in at. Richardson and Young are both outliers. Richardson is just an outlier with WAY higher upside and a safer short term floor.
Bryce Young has proven himself to be NFL-worthy, but the question remains: will he be a franchise quarterback? I believe he will be, and I also believe he is the number one quarterback out of this rookie class. Alabama is renowned for being a college football powerhouse and over the past ten years has had some of the top college quarterbacks, and Bryce Young is no exception. During his time at Alabama, Young set the single-season record for passing yards and touchdowns. He also finished second in career passing yards and touchdowns. Young has demonstrated that he is mature and ready to transition into a starting role in the NFL. One of his scouting strengths is his quick throwing motion, and his eyes and feet work together. He also has the ability to read coverage and make smart decisions with the ball under pressure. I think it will take a few games for Young to find his footing in the NFL, but once he does, he will be a highly sought-after quarterback for fantasy teams.
Rookie QB profiles from Fantasy Guides' Dynasty Guide
Andrew is picking Richardson as his rookie QB 1 for this rookie class and is probably my number 2 QB for this draft. I agree that Richardson is flashy and was an absolute monster at the combine. However, while the combine is a good indicator of a player's potential, it is by no means a predictor of how a player will perform in the NFL. The combine is a level playing field, but the NFL is anything but. I think it is important to remember Richardson's college stats. Between the 2021 and 2022 seasons, Richardson threw 23 touchdowns with a completion percentage of 54.7% in 19 games. While his average of 6.9 yards per carry is impressive, I don't think this will transfer to the NFL. Lastly, it is important to note that mobile quarterbacks don't have longevity in the NFL. So if you want a quarterback who might produce QB1 numbers, I say take Richardson. However, Young is more likely to have a long and successful career in the NFL, which is why he is my QB1 from this class.
We’re all doing it again. Overthinking and overanalyzing the QB position and finding reasons for why so and so is the QB1, when the answer is right in front of us. Bryce Young is the best QB in this class. And he has been for awhile now. He’s a true pro-style Quarterback with great decision making and a confident on field presence. Even has some mobility that can surprise you. A true “face-of-the-franchise” QB that you can build a team around. The guys only flaw is size, and he even measured in better than anticipated at the combine. What I think is more concerning is that he will likely end up being a Houston Texan. That’ll be a lot to overcome, but as is the case with most players, talent will win out. Trevor Lawrence being the best example of this as of late (not that I think those players have much else in common).
And while I understand the argument for Richardson, there are major flaws in his game. When it comes to fantasy, especially in dynasty, I don’t like chasing flash and pure upside. It’s far more likely Young will have a long and successful career as opposed to the other guys in this class. Give me the high floor with a solid ceiling over the lottery ticket that is AR.
The last time Calvin Ridley was on the field, I was pounding the table to buy him. He was underperforming, but all the underlying data supported a strong surge of production coming.
He was averaging 10.4 targets/game, he had 28% target share through his first four weeks, but he was only averaging 6.2 catches for 56.2 receiving yards per game through 5 games played.
"He was simply one of the best route runners, best technicians, and best separators in the NFL."
— Faraz Siddiqi—
If you haven’t read his recently written Player’s Tribune article, I highly recommend it. He talks about his physical (broken foot) and mental struggles going into his 2021 season. He claims he wasn’t himself during his limited time on the field in 2021, and it showed.
The NFL has officially reinstated Ridley, and he believes he’s better than ever, both physically and mentally. He thinks he can put up 1,400 yards with Trevor Lawrence this year. He’s certainly capable, but it’s obviously very hard to envision after he would be away from football for almost two years when the 2023 season kicks off.
Let’s talk about who he was before he was suspended.
He was simply one of the best route runners, best technicians, and best separators in the NFL. He was one of the few smaller receivers who proved to be an anomaly at the WR position. He wasn’t just a flanker (playing off the line), but he played X receiver as well, and shined.
He was one of the best in the league against man and press coverage, and if you think about it, he’s really what the Jaguars need. You have Christian Kirk, who is an excellent slot receiver, and a very good complementary perimeter receiver in Zay Jones. This passing offense is going to be good… and Calvin Ridley coming back can be the catalyst for Trevor Lawrence to take a big step forward.
Since 2000, Ridley ranks 13th best among WRs who had the best 3-year stretch to start their careers. There’s a reason to bet on him returning to form.
Currently, Ridley is the WR19 off the board in Underdog Fantasy best ball drafts. That would put him in the early 4th round. Ridley will be the best WR Lawrence has played with in the NFL, so I would rather have Ridley than Kirk in 2023, so I’d be off of Kirk’s current 4/5 turn price on Underdog.
Can Ridley re-gain a 25% target share in this offense off the bat? I think so. Christian Kirk led the Jaguars with 22% target share, but Zay Jones was right behind him at 21%. If Kirk couldn’t distance himself from Jones, Ridley is likely to overtake him in a significant way.
If Ridley is back to himself, I expect the target share to look something like:
If he’s 75% of himself, I expect the target share to be distributed between him and Kirk a little more.
This would put Ridley between 135 and 150 targets, which would likely place him as a Top-20 targeted WR. As the WR19 off the board, it’s not a stretch. He has two Top-20 WR finishes in his career so far.
I’m not sure his price leaves a whole lot of room for upside, so we might be drafting him close to his ceiling. There is a world where he finishes as a WR1 if Lawrence takes that step forward, but the chances of that happening is not high.
If you’re drafting him as a WR2, that’s reasonable - it’s where I expect him be finishing most of the season. I wouldn’t have WR1 expectations, but I do expect him to be a step above what Kirk was last year for fantasy.
The Panthers just cleared out their wallets, grabbed all of the change out of the couch cushions, and sold the beloved family pet in order to snag the 1st overall pick. In exchange for the number one pick the Bears will receive Carolina’s picks at 9 and 61 overall in this year’s draft, a 2024 1st, a 2025 2nd, and DJ Moore! The Panthers clearly see something they like! BUT WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR FANTASY FOOTBALL!!!!
"DO NOT get tricked into thinking that Moore has escaped the Pitiful Panthers and is now in a far better situation."
— Andrew Teuscher, Fantasy Guides —
What Does This Mean for Fields?
This looks exactly like what the Bills and Eagles did when they traded for a top-notch WR to support Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts as they entered their 3rd years. After doing so, both players went from being seen as an RB who happens to throw, to being an MVP candidate. Dare I call this concept of adding a WR in a QBs third year the Allen-Hurts corollary?
Here’s the thing though, Fields is a REALLY bad passer. He had the 36th-ranked passer grade in 2022 (min. 20% dropbacks). Hurts was actually an average passer in the league before his ascension (15th overall passing grade). Allen was more on par with how terrible Fields was as he ranked 31st in passer grade. What Allen did is widely seen as the greatest improvement as a passer the league has ever seen. While it is still an excellent idea to go out and get an elite pass catcher to support a developing QB, we can’t really say Fields is guaranteed to make the same leap. This absolutely does help Fields’ situation, though. The issue is that Fields’ value in fantasy was already super high in SF leagues. If you have Fields you should be thrilled. However, I’m certainly not going out and buying high on Fields after this move. Shoot, if someone offers an arm and a leg for “the next Josh Allen”, it could be worth selling.
What does this mean for DJ Moore?
This question brings me to the “Anything has to be better” theory. Moore definitely has a higher ceiling with Fields than he did with the trio of Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, and PJ Walker. The Bears passing attack was a blackhole for fantasy WRs.
They threw the ball 22 times a game and again Fields didn’t throw those 22 passes very well. That being said he’s an elite football player whose athleticism can help the passing game come along with weapons. Darnell Mooney is not supposed to be a team’s WR1.
Also, Carolina only threw the ball 27 times per game and threw 2 fewer TDs than the Bears. The Panthers’ passes likewise were terrible, as Moore had the 90th-ranked catchable target rate and 92nd-ranked target quality. DO NOT get tricked into thinking that Moore has escaped the Pitiful Panthers and is now in a far better situation. DJ Moore escaped the Pitiful Panthers and is now headed to the Misery of the Midway. But there is still more hope in the Windy City than there was in Charlotte.
Okay, So What About Carolina?
We now get to wait and see who they take at QB. Whether its Stroud, Young, Richardson, or even Levis, whoever comes in will have Terrace Marshall as their WR1. Look for the Panthers to add some WR help somewhere. The rest of the Panther’s roster is incredibly well-built so I trust they will make good decisions to help their new franchise QB. It certainly will come along slowly though. Marshall was a decent prospect so he might be an interesting acquisition. The way I see it, Anthony Richardson is the only option that could go to Carolina and be fantasy-relevant in year 1 because of his legs.
Rest of DAAA Bears Offense
For the rest of the Bears offense this isn’t terrible. Adding a good pass catcher will help sustain drives and create more TD opportunities. This doesn’t scare me off Cole Kmet. Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool will of course take a backseat though. This should also help the Bears’ run game have more room to operate.
Overall Impact:
📈 Fields: stock certainly up but be careful
📈 DJ Moore: potential is up but I’d assume he’s still a WR2
📉 Rest of Bears pass catchers: Kmet will get his but Mooney and Claypool take a step down
📈 Terrace Marshall: could be a sneaky breakout
When evaluating an NFL draft prospect, we have to take into consideration as many data points as we can find, and Illinois running back Chase Brown has been an interesting player to follow this past season, and throughout the pre-draft process. Chase Brown is a 5’9 1/2”, 205-pound running back who played for the Illinois Fighting Illini and then opted to enter the 2023 NFL Draft following a fantastic junior season. The three main data points of interest for Chase Brown have been his production this past season at Illinois, the Senior Bowl and the Combine.
"His combine certainly helped raise his stock back up, and had us taking a harder look at him heading into next month’s NFL Draft in Kansas City."
— Jesse Preston, @devyrookiewatch —
As far as production is concerned, you’d be hard pressed to find a more productive college football running back than Chase Brown this past season. Brown set a school record in 2022, rushing for more than 100 yards in the Illini's first 10 games, and added another school record by rushing for over 100 yards in 11 games for the season. He finished the year ranked second in the Big Ten and third in the nation averaging 136.9 yards per game and 4th in the FBS in total rushing yards with 1,643 (with 10 rushing touchdowns). He also caught 27 passes for another 240 yards and 3 touchdowns, which isn’t Earth shattering, but does show us that he has the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. He showcased a great ability to navigate high traffic areas in the Illinois run first offensive system. His ability to stop and start and get back up to full speed looked great on Saturdays. He played in a very difficult B1G conference and still put up gaudy numbers which is exactly what we want to see out of an NFL prospect. Watching film on Chase Brown and seeing how he helped Illinois to a great season definitely had his stock on the rise.
Then came the Senior Bowl… Brown made several ‘fallers’, ‘losers’ or ‘stock down’ lists after looking ‘uncomfortable’ in pass protection during the practice week, and just ‘ok’ on his 9 carries in the game. He was definitely overshadowed by Texas running back Roshon Johnson during the practice week, and then was out performed by his Northwestern running back doppelganger Evan Hull during the game. While we think all-star games are a difficult place to evaluate a prospect and that some of the negative reviews were inflated (40 yards rushing on his 9 carries is fine) his stock definitely took a hit.
Finally the combine came, and Chase Brown left his mark in Indy. He posted the best marks for tailbacks in the 10-yard split, vertical jump (40″), broad jump (127″) and bench press (25), while clocking a blazing 4.43 40-yard dash. The totals certainly helped raise his stock back up, and had us taking a harder look at him heading into next month’s NFL Draft in Kansas City. Still most predictions don't have Brown getting selected on Day 1:
We still need our final data point: his draft capital. But thus far we think Brown could be a nice sleeper running back pick in your upcoming dynasty draft. There is a pretty clear upper tier of backs, but after the top 4 running backs or so, it is a bit of a dart throw trying to figure out the fantasy impact of the rest of them. If Brown goes to a running back needy team, improves his pass protection, and gets a shot, he could pop. His experience in a pro style offense, elite athleticism (showcased at the combine), decent size, and the impact he made this past season at Illinois is worth a look in the middle rounds of your dynasty rookie draft.
Throughout the offseason, we will be providing opinionated articles on fantasy players who are ranked very closely in our overall dynasty rankings. Have some players you want featured next? Comment below and we may just feature them in our next article.
So clearly no one can sniff Travis Kelce’s volume and production right? Wrong. Mark Andrews led all TE’s in target share last season with a ridiculous 29%. Andrews tied for the 8th highest target share out of any receiver in the NFL. Plus, he has been TE1!
In order to be TE2 he only has to improve one spot from the TE3 ppg pace he had in 2022. Oh ya, and 2022 was a BAD year for Mr. Andrews. The Ravens TE will be walking into basically the same situation he thrived in 2021 and 2022. I like Bateman as a bounceback player but no one will significantly eat into his piece of the receiving pie that got him 7.5 targets/game.
"With Tyler Huntley throwing him the ball for 4 games in 2021, Andrews averaged 26.3 ppg"
— Andrew Teuscher, Fantasy Guides —
Calling Mark Andrews as the TE2 next year seems like cheating considering the fact that he’s the only dude not named Travis Kelce to have a TE1 finish since 2018. Andrews clearly has the upside to do it again, even if Lamar doesn’t come to play next year. With Pro Bowl QB Tyler Huntley throwing him the ball for 4 games in 2021, Andrews averaged 26.3 ppg. I view it this way. If Lamar is there, then Andrews has his guy back. If Lamar isn’t there then the whole offense runs through Andrews like it did in that 4 game stretch in 2021.
TJ Hockenson has proven to be a top 5 TE and I believe next year he will be the league’s number two tight end. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him sneak in as the number one spot if he sees more touchdowns in 2023. In 2022 Hockenson saw an average PPR points of 13.3 on the season. There is an important note to this stat, Hockenson was traded to the Vikings where he averaged 14.4 PPR points a week compared to the 12.2 points per week he scored with the Lions. Hockenson also saw an increase in targets after joining the Vikings.
As of now the vikings receiving core is rather thin after Jefferson. Adam Thielen is past his prime and KJ Osborn leaves a lot to be desired. The Vikings may draft a receiver this off-season but I do not expect them to make a splash their rookie year. Hockenson should see a steady target share because of this. While Kirk Cousin may not be an elite QB, he does average 38 throws a game. As of now Hockenson is the clear number two on that team and you can count on him seeing a lot of throws going his way in 2023. So to recap, Hockenson averages 14.4 points a game with the vikings, and sees a high target share in a pass heavy offense. If Hockenson see double digit touchdowns this upcoming season, I expect him to be the TE #2.
Who better to finish 2023 as the TE2 than the TE that finished as the overall TE1 just 2 years ago? We know Andrews is capable. And even last year, Andrews was off to a hot start, recording 5 TDs and 4 games with 89+ receiving yards. Good enough for the TE2. He even averaged the same PPG last season as the TE that finished 2nd (Hockenson).
But things fell off for Andrews the latter half of 2022, mostly due to inconsistent QB play all around. Lamar missed games at the end of the season, which did Andrews no favors. What it really comes down to for Mark Andrews fantasy success, is will Lamar Jackson play 17 games, and will he be on the Ravens? If you believe those things, like I do, Andrews is the clear cut TE2 with TE1 upside.
Regardless of what happens with Lamar, the fact of the matter is that Andrews is the top receiving option for the Ravens. And there’s not a free agent out there that would change that. Even if the Ravens draft a top prospect at WR, given how poor the Ravens are in that area, I wouldn’t expect any single player to cut into Andrews workload enough to hurt his fantasy upside and floor. His workload is safe, the offense is willing to run through him, and we’ve seen him outpace Travis Kelce before. He’s the best bet at TE2 in fantasy drafts this year.
The number 1 wide receiver in the 2023 draft class is Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Look to his 2022 season where he was hampered with a hamstring injury, and you might think otherwise or even label him injury prone. That’s a mistake.
"You don’t need to be an X-receiver, have top-end speed or be taller than everyone to be a successful wide receiver in today’s NFL."
— Keith Vice—
When we look at JSN’s 2021 stats, there shouldn’t be a question who the top dog is. In a receiving room filled with star-studded talents such as Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave and Marvin Harrison Jr., JSN led the team in targets, receptions, and yards. This is as a sophomore and his first year as a starter. Both Wilson and Olave had already been established the year before.
Here are the stats from the 2021 season of JSN, Wilson and Olave:
2021 Target Share:
The concern most people have now is, “He went against the 3rd best CB since he played with both Wilson and Olave”. Well, if that’s the case because of his slot role, then why won’t we see more of the same in the NFL? People had the same concerns with Garrett Wilson in 2020, where he played 73.4% of his snaps in the slot before moving back out wide in 2021.
Just because a player is in the slot does not mean they are a worse player. A perfect example of this is Amon-Ra St. Brown. In 2020, St. Brown played alongside Drake London, yet still produced a higher target share. The two years prior, he produced right alongside Michael Pittman Jr., putting up a higher target share as a freshman compared to Pittman Jr. as a junior. People questioned ARSB’s talent and ability even after setting the NFL on fire in the 2nd half of his rookie season. JSN is now in the same position after setting the college football landscape on fire in 2021. Let’s stop worrying about his slot role and pay attention to the clear elite talent in front of us that is more athletic than given credit for.
JSN’s combine scores more than confirmed his athletic ability. The combine scores are listed below:
In the slot, the goal is to gain separation quickly with precise route running. As one of the most polished route runners, JSN is more than capable of dominating. You don’t need to be an X-receiver, have top-end speed or be taller than everyone to be a successful wide receiver in today’s NFL.
Let’s knock out that hamstring injury stigma. Yes, there’s a chance of recurrence, but that’s the case for every player who gets a soft tissue injury. JSN gave himself almost the entire 2022 season to heal and prepare himself for the NFL draft. As we saw at the combine, he’s completely healthy for 2023 and beyond.
Out of the wide receiver prospects available in the 2023 draft, the top wide receiver is Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
The University of Pittsburgh has a secret cooking up there in those beautiful yellow and blue jerseys. Pitt running back Israel Abanikanda just had one of the most ridiculous seasons out of any back in this loaded 2023 class. “Izzy” put up over 1,500 total yards and led all of FBS in Rushing TDs (20). Despite this incredible season, somehow nobody is talking about this dude.
"With no one talking about Izzy, there is a real shot he flies under the radar."
— Andrew Teuscher, Fantasy Guides —
Abanikanda had one of the most dominant games in NCAA rushing history this past year. Against Virginia Tech this year, Abanikanda put up 320 yards and 6 TDs. You’re reading that right. In one game Izzy put the Hokies over his knee and spanked them to become the 3rd dude alongside LaDainian Tomlinson and Ricky Williams to have 300 yards and 6 TDs playing on a power 5 conference team. Izzy didn’t put up his big season by just having one or two great games. Nah, he had 100 rushing yards in 9 out of the 11 games he suited up in. The product out of Pittsburgh put up a mind-boggling 46.5% dominator rating which puts him in the 97th percentile out of all RB prospects to enter the league.
The Pittsburgh RB is a big, mean runner with great straight-line speed. He looks like a grown man playing backyard football with his nephews. The ACC isn’t quite the SEC but he did all of this against legit competition. He doesn’t blow you away with his receiving ability, but a 6.2% target share doesn’t concern me too much. Abanikanda is declaring early after his breakout Junior year, which we love to see in a prospect. Although he didn’t quite break out until age 20, he still had some nice showings in his true Sophmore year.
With no one talking about Izzy, there is a real shot he flies under the radar. Due to a hamstring injury he didn't do any drills at the NFL combine, but if he can do well at his Pro Day and get taken on Day 2 of the NFL Draft, he could be an absolute steal in the 2nd round of Rookie Drafts. We’re talking about a real Dameon Pierce situation here. Luckily, the Fantasy Guides' team will have you drafting sleepers your friends have never heard of.
Marquise Brown spent his first few years in the league on a run-first team. Because of that, he struggled to rack up meaningful stats. But his efficiency and adjusted volume numbers were enough to take notice of. Brown pulled a 27.3% target share as a rookie, the 22nd-highest in the league. He followed those years up with 23.4% and 27.9% target shares. The ability to command targets is one of the best things we can see from a young receiver. And after being traded to Arizona, he continued to draw targets but now on a pass-first team. Prior to his Week 6 injury, Brown was the WR5 in PPR scoring.
"We finally got a glimpse of what Brown could look like in a high-powered passing offense last year, and the result was elite fantasy production."
— Dave Kluge, Footballguys —
Brown and Kyler Murray had an electric connection in college that immediately translated to the pros. Still just 25 years old, Brown has plenty of peak years ahead of him. Looking at the state of the Cardinals could scare some people off, making Brown a valuable trade target. Kyler Murray tore his ACL late in the season, which makes 2023 appear to be a lost year. But if you’re rebuilding, Brown is the exact type of player you want to target.
When Murray is expected to be back and fully healthy in 2024, DeAndre Hopkins and Zach Ertz will likely be off the team. The stage will be set for a 27-year-old Brown to step in as the team’s WR1. Brown, a former first-round pick, is much more than a big-play weapon people perceive him to be. He has developed into a polished receiver who can win routes at every level of the field. Leading up to his injury, Brown was averaging 10.7 targets, 80.8 yards, and 0.5 touchdowns per game. An entire season with that production level would have finished as WR5 this year, behind CeeDee Lamb and just ahead of AJ Brown.
We must remember that Brown came into the league in a bad situation. He suffered a Lisfranc surgery in his final year in college, limiting him as a rookie. Even when healthy in Baltimore, his skillset wasn’t properly utilized as the offense ran through the ground game and tight ends. We finally got a glimpse of what Brown could look like in a high-powered passing offense last year, and the result was elite fantasy production. Still on the right side of the age curve, Brown could have years of WR1 production ahead of him and is being valued as a middling WR2 in dynasty.
It’s about time we put some respect on Lamar Jackson’s name. Lamar was a former MVP of the league who is still in his prime. I like Justin Fields as someone who might turn into something special. Lamar IS something special. I’d take Lamar over Fields no matter what uniform he wears in ‘23.
"Both guys can use their legs, but Lamar has proven he can actually throw a football."
— Andrew Teuscher, Fantasy Guides —
For starters, Lamar’s worst year was QB8 on a ppg basis. He’s also at LEAST an average league passer. According to PFF he was 15th in PFF passer grade in ‘21. Fields was 27th (min. 350 dropbacks) Not to even mention all the advanced metrics Lamar cleared Fields in. And DON’T throw the Jalen Hurts improvement comparison. Hurts was higher in a ton of advanced passing metrics before his rise. Also, spare me with FiElDs HaD nO oNe To ThRoW tO. Lamar’s WR1 was Demarcus Robinson and his receivers led the league in drop %.
Both guys can use their legs, but Lamar has proven he can actually throw a football. We don’t know if Fields is made for the league yet. Regardless if Lamar gets the bag or if he gets traded, whatever team Lamar is on will be investing far more capital than the 11th pick the Bears spent. Lamar is more stable and we know he’s going to play for years to come.
I want to first start by saying that I would be very happy to have either of these QBs, but having to choose one, I would take Fields over Jackson. First, Fields saw considerable improvement last season, both on the ground and in the air. This past season, Fields rushed 160 times for 1,143 yards for an average of 7.14 yards a carry. Fields’ average beats out Jackon’s top average of 6.85 yards that came three seasons ago in 2019.
Fields does leave room for improvement in the passing game as last season he only completed 60% of his passes. However, last season was Luke Getsy’s first as the Bear’s play caller. Year two of the Gesty, Fields duo should see a large improvement. With rumors circulating that Fields could be traded, it is important to know that the team he is traded to is likely going to build the team around him. This would likely cause another season where Jackson out performs Fields, but in the long run Fields should be the one on top.
Things could change drastically as contract negotiations loom for Lamar, but the way I see it, he either stays in a good situation in Baltimore, or heads somewhere with a roster ready to Win Now. Either way, I'll take the proven commodity over the situation Fields finds himself in.
Lamar has ranked top 9 in PPG since 2019. 20.26 being the worst of it. While he's missed some games the past couple seasons, his production while on the field is still top notch. Age is often an argument with Fields and Lamar but Lamar is still only 26 years old, so there's a lot more miles left in the tank, even as a run first QB. We didn't see Vick's rushing ability fall off until after age 31.
While I think Fields is not far behind Lamar in fantasy value or even in rushing ability, the difference maker really comes down to passing ability for me. Fields has ranked 32nd in completion % his first 2 years in the league. And has also ranked 25th and 28th in passer rate those seasons. Both seasons are worse than Lamar. Now, you can blame the weapons, but Lamar's aren't anything to write home about. This is ultimately a decision of who you can trust more for me. And that QB is Lamar Jackson.
There’s a lot of uncertainty about the quarterback situation in San Fransisco, opening up a window to buy Trey Lance at a discount. Brock Purdy could return from his elbow injury before camp, but his availability for 2023 is still uncertain. His late-season push with the 49ers has many pundits expecting a camp battle that could go in either direction. But there were noticeable flaws in Purdy’s game that were exposed down the stretch. To close out the regular season, Purdy played against Miami, Tampa Bay, Seattle, Washington, Las Vegas, and Arizona; not one defense that would qualify as a tough matchup. In Round 1 of the playoffs, he faced off against Seattle again and played admirably. But in the first real test of his NFL career, a home playoff game against Dallas, Purdy struggled. He failed to throw a single touchdown, completed passes at a rate below his average, and had the fewest passing yards per attempt since he was thrust unexpectedly into a game after Jimmy Garoppolo’s injury. In addition to his bleak box score, there were multiple dropped interceptions. Getting pressure on a quarterback behind the 49ers' offensive line isn’t easy, but Purdy’s limitations as an athlete were exposed when Dallas did so.
"With a significant investment made in Lance, expect the team to lean in his direction during camp this year and give him first crack at the starting job."
— Dave Kluge, Footballguys —
The purpose of this isn’t to take away from what Purdy did last season but just to show that it was an ideal situation for a new quarterback. Meanwhile, looking at the two games Trey Lance played, one was on the road in Chicago during a torrential downpour. The other, he was knocked out with an injury in the first quarter. Less than ideal. We have yet to see what Lance can do as a full-time starter, but Kyle Shanahan’s offense is extremely friendly for quarterbacks. With an arsenal of weapons, including Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle, this ecosystem is made for any quarterback to find fantasy success.
Lance and Purdy could not be more different as prospects. Lance was drafted third overall by the 49ers. His size (6’4”, 226 pounds) is prototypical for an NFL quarterback. He’ll add a new layer to this offense as a rusher. Purdy is an undersized and relatively unathletic quarterback who was a pick away from going undrafted. He’ll make for an above-average backup, but the job is Lance’s to lose.
As we’ve seen from Jimmy Garoppolo, Nick Mullens, CJ Beathard, and now Purdy, good-but-not-great play from the quarterback position is enough to win in Shanahan’s system. Lance is the first quarterback this team has had with a chance to play great football. The 49ers have been a game away from a Super Bowl appearance in back-to-back years, and subpar quarterback play was the reason for both losses. With a significant investment made in Lance, expect the team to lean in his direction during camp this year and give him first crack at the starting job. Given Lance’s rushing upside and the after-the-catch abilities of his weapons, Lance has all the tools to be a fantasy superstar starting in 2023 and for years to come.
Mike Williams had a disappointing year compared to 2021 that saw him finish as the WR31 overall, but this was also his first season since his rookie year he played less than 15 games in a season. Williams is on the older side at 28 years old, but that should make his value slightly cheaper. If you’re a team that’s contending, then Williams could be a sneaky good pick up.
"Williams should return to borderline WR1 numbers and continue the production for the next few years."
— Keith Vice—
Through his career with Herbert so far, Williams has increased his efficiency and overall numbers:
To break that down a little further, Williams began to see his numbers across the board increase toward the end of 2020 after building a consistent chemistry with Justin Herbert. If we started tracking from where the chemistry took off in week 11, the 3-year average jumps to 9 targets per game for example. That would have ranked 11th or better among wide receivers in each of the last 3 seasons. The chemistry clearly continued onto 2021 with his WR13 overall finish. Even with the injuries both suffered in 2022, the connection still looked very strong between the two.
When Williams was healthy (11 games) in 2022, he showed signs of consistency scoring 10+ points in 7 of those games and was the WR18 in points per game at 15.2. Even with Keenan back, Williams still produced top numbers, averaging 15.6 points on 7 targets which lines up with his WR13 overall finish in 2021 (15.4 points per game on 8.1 targets).
In what should be a return to health in 2023 for Williams as well as a bounce back season for Herbert, Williams should return to borderline WR1 numbers and continue the production for the next few years. Currently ranked as the WR33 in dynasty according to FantasyPros, he should be attainable without giving up valuable assets in return.
It’s relatively known now that running backs struggle in their first year back post-ACL tear. And from what we saw in 2022, Dobbins had an up and down season. The Ravens brought Dobbins up to speed slowly but overall, we can say that Dobbins’ season was generally positive.
In 2022, Dobbins averaged 10.2 points per game, but in games where Dobbins got 10+ touches, that number rose to 13.26 points per game. What gave Dobbins’ believers even more validation of a return to form was Dobbins’ performance in the playoffs. On 17 total touches, Dobbins put up 105 yards and a touchdown on his way to 20.5 fantasy points.
"Going into 2023 and looking ahead to the future, Dobbins is a great player to buy low based on his “rocky” performance in 2022."
— Keith Vice—
Dobbins showed great progressions throughout the 2022 season, and a lot of credit can be given to the Ravens for doing an incredible job rehabilitating such a serious injury (ACL, LCL, hamstring, meniscus). Such an injury shouldn’t have an impact on Dobbins in the future since he’s never had injuries to these areas in the past. Now that he’ll be 2 years removed from his tears and at only 24 years old, Dobbins is a perfect buy-low candidate in dynasty leagues.
What type of numbers should we expect from Dobbins? To end the 2020 season, we saw Dobbins begin to breakout with strong momentum going into 2021. Dobbins 2020 stats during weeks 11 to 17 are listed below:
Going into 2023, we can see something resembling the numbers above, but with a lesser dependency on touchdowns due to its volatility per game. We know Lamar (if he re-signs) will get his rushing attempts, but what about Gus Edwards? He never really picked up the momentum you’d hope for to end the season with an inconsistent snap share. However, he still got 13 total touches in the Ravens’ playoff game, but that obviously didn’t have an impact on Dobbins whatsoever.
Going into 2023 and looking ahead to the future, Dobbins is a great player to buy low based on his “rocky” performance in 2022. There was a lot to like though, which is why I’d be perfectly happy with Dobbins as my RB2 in dynasty leagues.
Deshaun Watson looking rusty in 2022 was an understatement. He went from 4-straight seasons as a top-5 QB to 14.2 points per game in 2022, which ranked 25th among quarterbacks from weeks 1-17.
"Watson won’t just become bad at football, but some fantasy managers might think otherwise."
— Keith Vice—
So why should we be targeting Watson? As Watson got reacclimated to the speed of an NFL game, the rust began to wear off. He looked very good in weeks 17 and 18, averaging 199.5 passing yards, 37.5 rushing yards, 5 total touchdowns and 20.75 points per game. Two games aren’t big sample size, but it’s a positive going into 2023 given the limited games he played.
If we found a happy medium between Watson’s 2022 season, and compared it to his career averages, this would be the results over 17 games:
These numbers only meet in the middle between a horrible 2022 season and Watson’s career averages. Taking into consideration his history of production, the numbers stated above can easily be outproduced. Given his QB10 dynasty ranking on FantasyPros, the consensus is behind Watson as well. Prior to 2022, Watson never averaged less than 21.3 points per game, and his worst finish was QB5 overall in a full season. After missing one and a half seasons and given he is only 27 years old, Watson won’t just become bad at football, but some fantasy managers might think otherwise. Take advantage of the potential top-5 upside in 2023 and beyond.
He has finished top 12 twice in back-to-back seasons before his dirty diaper 2021 season.
But now this dude just signed with a team who was top 5 in passing yards and TDs! The man is going from Matt Nagy and Andy Dalton to Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford.
Somehow, he's still barely being drafted as a WR2…there’s a good chance he’ll go even later in your home leagues.
Viewer Discretion is Advised! Actual clip of what Allen Robinson sees in his nightmares
Robert Woods fantasy career before and after Sean McVay
OBJ's 2021 season before and after Sean McVay (OBJ first start in LA was week 12)
Andrew Teuscher is a certified fantasy try hard and contributor to Fantasy Guides
]]>
Matthew Stafford: Stafford finished 2021 as QB5 and a SuperBowl champion. Yet, he is going as QB11 via FantasyPros ADP. I’d say his ADP puzzles me, but the truth is he flopped for fantasy managers in the playoffs last season (AVG 13.4 PPG weeks 14-18). However, he entered week 14 as QB4 averaging 21.9 PPG. Despite his disastrous fantasy playoff run, he’s the one who got you there.
Stafford threw for three or more TDs, and scored 19+ fantasy points in 9/17 games last season. He scored less than 15.4 points in just four games. Last time I checked, he still has Cooper Kupp. He lost Robert Woods this offseason, and in all likelihood won’t have OBJ back. BUT… The Rams added Allen Robinson (a three-time 1,000-yard/top-10 fantasy WR) to his arsenal. It stands to reason Stafford is good for another 350+ points this season. He is a steal at his current value.
Cam Akers: The long awaited breakout may finally be upon us. Or is it? Akers is a polarizing player, possessing an impressive college pedigree, and even showing flashes of his potential in the NFL. A torn achilles suffered before the 2021 season derailed his breakout campaign before it began. After making a remarkable recovery, returning to action faster than many thought possible, the Rams were quick to hand him the reins. He dominated the Rams backfield touches during the postseason, averaging 19 touches per game. However, his efficiency left much to be desired. He averaged just 2.6 YPC during this span and failed to find the endzone once.
Yet, the undeniable fact is the Rams were willing to feed him that much, even after a game where he lost two fumbles. Clearly they believe in him as their RB1. As we know, the Rams RB1 job had Akers’s current backup, Darrell Henderson, sitting at RB12 entering week 13 last season.
I’d be cautious about it, but if Akers sees the same usage, he could realistically find himself in RB1 territory. His current ADP via FantasyPros is RB17.
Darrell Henderson: As far as I’m concerned, Henderson will enter 2022 as nothing more than a handcuff for Akers. However, taking into account his history of production (avg 15.7 PPG weeks 1-12 in 2021) he should be considered one of the most valuable handcuffs in the game. He is certainly worth a late-round flier.
Cooper Kupp: Kupp finished 2021: a triple-crown winner (led the league in receptions, rec. yards and rec. TDs), a SuperBowl MVP as well as my personal best friend.
You could write a book with all the positive stats Kupp accrued in 2021. He had 14 games with at least 20 PPR points, and six games with at least 30. Finished with 10 or more targets in 14/17 games (no less than seven in any game). It would be difficult for anyone to duplicate that kind of historic production. Nevertheless Kupp rightfully projects at the top of his position.
Considering Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill found new homes this offseason, Kupp should be firmly locked in as this year's preseason WR1 overall.
Allen Robinson: Here is a list of QBs Robinson has played with since entering the league: Blake Bortles, Chad Henne, Mitch Trubisky, Nick Foles, Andy Dalton and rookie Justin Fields. Yikes. Despite the adversity, he’s managed three 1,000-yard campaigns (PPR WR6 in 2015, WR8 in 2019 and WR9 in 2020).
If he can accomplish this with the list of passers mentioned above, imagine what he can do with the best QB he’s ever played with in his pro (or college) career. He now joins a Stafford-led Rams team where, for once, he won’t be considered his team’s primary receiving threat. Instead, he’ll line up opposite Super Bowl MVP Cooper Kupp, taking over Odell Beckham‘s role, which netted the former Giant seven TDs in 12 games as a Ram in 2021.
Last season likely left a bad taste in your mouth from Robinson since he finished as WR83 despite an average draft position of WR11 (via FantasyPros). You’re not alone. However, the good thing about hitting rock bottom is that there’s nowhere to go but up. Robinson is guaranteed to see higher-quality looks while drawing less aggressive attention from opposing defenses. Do with that information what you will.
Van Jefferson: In all likelihood, Jefferson will be the third/fourth option in the Rams pass game this season. Things should be pretty similar to last season in terms of production. That being said, he proved usable at times last season (14+ PPR points in 6/17 games, 16+ in 4/17). Barring an unforeseen injury to a depth chart superior, Jefferson shouldn’t be much more than a hit-or-miss WR3/bye week substitute.
Tyler Higbee: Currently sporting an ADP of TE16 via FantasyPros, optimism (for 2022) is hard to come by for Higbee. His run as a TE1 in 2019 (five consecutive games with at least 18 PPR points to end the season) feels like a distant memory now. Higbee struggled to manage double-digit PPR points last season, meeting the mark in just 6/17 games. He failed to top 70 yards in any game and finished as TE14 when it was all said and done. It’s unlikely much changes. Higbee should be considered a TE2 with upside until further notice.
Tim's Fantasy Tips can be found on Instagram. Be sure to check him out.