A Top 5 Season For The GOAT
I wrote an article last offseason titled Could He Be The QB1? about why I thought Jameis Winston would be a Top 10, even Top 5 quarterback. It didn’t have as much to do with his talent, but rather the talent that surrounded him as well as the Bruce Arians pass-happy system he was playing in.
"They will likely not be handing off much and will also be playing most of their games from behind. Winston’s arm might fall off." — Fantasy Guides quote on September 2nd, 2019.
I was correct in my thinking. Winston tied for the most pass attempts in the NFL. That lead the way to a career-high 33 passing touchdowns and 5,109 yards. Unfortunately for Winston it also lead to 30 interceptions. Bad for his chances at a new NFL contract, but good for his fantasy finish. He ended the season as the QB5. I think we are likely to see a similar outcome this season for Tampa’s new signal caller, The 🐐.
Arians was able to take a thought-to-be washed up Carson Palmer and turn him into the QB5 during his age 35 season. Just imagine what he could have done with Tom Brady. Only three times in his career: 2012, 2013 and 2015 has Brady attempted close to the number of passes (626) that Winston did last season, and two of those he were Top 3 fantasy finishes. Brady also has arguably one of his best supporting casts of his career in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, as well as O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate at tight end. The other seasons when Brady had his best supporting casts: 2007, 2011, 2014, 2015 and 2017 he finished as the QB1, QB4, QB9, QB2 and QB3. Brady has also been amazing his entire career at taking care of the football, especially as of late. Since 2013, the most interceptions Tom has thrown was 11, nearly 1/3 of what Winston threw last season. Just imagine Winston’s stat line without all those interceptions and more red zone opportunities. Last season Brady attempted 26 more red zone passes than Winston, despite having 13 less total attempts and playing with a much inferior supporting cast. That’s because Tom takes care of the football and doesn’t throw two picks per game before the team can even get to the red zone. Instead of 5,109 yards, 33 touchdowns and 30 interceptions, now imagine it closer to 5,000+ passings yards 35+ passing touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Those are very possible numbers for Brady in 2020. Those numbers would have been good for the QB3 last season.
I get it, there are two pretty BIG concerns for Tom. He's entering his age 43 season and he's playing in a new system for the first time in his career. Those things do matter. Tom could completely hit the wall this season or not gel in Tampa, or both. Here’s the good news, according to FantasyFootballCalculator, Brady is being drafted as the 21st quarterback.
So you don't have to take him as one of the top quarterbacks off the board. He's going after Cam Newton, Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones, Jared Goff, Jimmy Garoppolo, Kirk Cousins and Baker Mayfield. I would be shocked if he finishes behind any of them. I think Tom has a Top 12 floor with a Top 5 ceiling and he's a player you can wait to take until the 10th to 12th rounds.
If you are a contending team target Brady by offering your 3rd round rookie pick. If that doesn’t work, offer your 3rd and 4th. If neither of those attempts work consider offering your 2nd for Brady and a 3rd.
If you are NOT a contending team try to get a 2nd for him. If that doesn’t work ask for a 2nd for Brady and your 3rd.
Thank you to @designedbyjohnny for the Joe Burrow jersey swap.
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