Adjusted Points Per Game

Dynasty Guide with Top 300 Rankings and Top 50 Rookie Rankings

If you have read my articles before, you know I often reference Points Per Game. It's the way I prefer to look at scoring vs overall point finish. It tells a better picture as to how good a player was in the games they played in. When players miss games if obviously effects their overall finish, but it shouldn't diminish what they did in the games they did play.

Well, you can take looking at points per game even further by examining the game logs. Players miss games with injury which shows up on game logs, but only the games they miss show up. What about the actual games they played in? What if they only played in one series? Those couple of minutes on the field still count as one game in the game logs. That can skew the player's point per game and make it appear that they were worse than they actually were. That's why it's good to look closer at those games and adjust the points per game. Here are a few players that stand out when looking at Adjusted Points Per Game.

James Conner

James Conner: PPG 14.6 / ADJ PPG 17.46

Conner battled multiple injuries in 2019 that limited his playing time. I removed weeks 11 and 16 from the sample as those games forced him from the field and he never played in at least 20% of the snaps. When just using games played, he jumps up from the RB16 in points per game to the RB9 when using adjusted points per game. It's a pretty substantial leap and has made me want to take a closer look at Conner going forward.

Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill: PPG 15.7 / ADJ PPG 18.4

I remember watching the Chiefs playing the Jaguars in week 1 and seeing Jalen Ramsey rough up Hill on the sidelines which caused a shoulder injury that forced Hill to miss the rest of the game as well as the next five. He also suffered a hamstring injury in week 11 that forced him out of the game after only running a total of 5 passing routes. Remove those games and Hill jumps up from the WR12 in points per game to the WR3. That's a very significant number and one that should remind fantasy players that Hill is an elite fantasy option who should be ranked inside the top 5 in 2020.

Drew Brees

Drew Brees: PPG 20.4 / ADJ PPG 22.4

The last player I want to talk about is Drew Brees. He's currently being drafted as a back end QB1 right now, which I think is too low. How anyone would draft Aaron Rodgers ahead of him is beyond me. He was really good last season as the QB7 in points per game. He averaged the same points per game as Russell Wilson. And that's included his week two matchup vs the Rams when he broke his thumb and was only able to attempt 5 passes. Remove that game and he was pretty easily the 2nd best quarterback in the league in 2020. His adjusted points per game are a full point better than the number two quarterback Deshaun Watson. That's elite QB play and something I still think the fantasy community is slow to realize.  


Leave a comment