Kyler Murray: Only Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes have been better than Kyler Murray on a points per game basis over the past two seasons among QBs who have played in at least 20 games. There is no reason to think he won't be right there again in 2022. The addition of Marquise Brown should only help that, especially given that DeAndre Hopkins will be suspended for the first 6 games of the season. If he can increase his rushing yards to be closer to what they were in 2020, then the overall QB1 is well within reach. His 38.8 rushing yards per game since he entered the league is one of the best among quarterbacks. Kyler's only blemish so far during his career has been injury. He has been injured each of the past two seasons, and has not been the same player after injury. If he can avoid injury in 2022, PFF’s 9th highest-graded QB will almost certainly be a Top 5 quarterback by season's end.
James Conner: Conner was a fantasy darling in 2021 finishing as the RB5 in ppr scoring. While he only rushed for 752 yards on a meager 3.7 yards per carry, he did find the end zone 15 times on the ground, and managed to pull in a very impressive 37 receptions on 39 targets for 375 yards and another 3 touchdowns. Conner should have the backfield to himself and be the beneficiary of a ton of volume in what projects to be a good and high-paced offense. Expect more RB1 numbers from Conner in 2022.
DeAndre Hopkins: Hopkins is being suspended for the first 6 games of the season, so obviously a WR1 end of season finish is out of the question. 2021 was the first time in the past 4 seasons that Hopkins didn't finish as a Top-5 wide receiver. He wasn't even close, he finished as the WR46. Much of that had to do with injury. He suffered an MCL tear that required surgery. However, even on a points per game basis, he was only the WR20. Much of this had to do with Kliff Kingsbury's offense and the nature of the spread. For the first time in the past 4 years, Hopkins didn't have a target share north of 29%...in fact it was nearly 10% lower at just over 20%. All-in-all, it was a very non-Dhop season. However, looking ahead it's hard to see Nuk reaching his former heights of years past. The team added WR Marquise Brown for added competition as well as 2nd round pick Tre McBride to go along with already having veterans AJ Green and Zach Ertz and up-and-coming 2nd-year talent Rondale Moore. Hopkins high-end WR1 days are in the rearview mirror as he clings to try to hopefully hold some back-end WR1 value, but even that could be in jeopardy.
Marquise Brown: DeAndre Hopkins being suspended the first 6 weeks of the NFL season should help Brown’s start to the season with his new team. 2021 was a sort of breakout year for Brown. His WR21 finish was up 22 spots from his career high. Things could have been much better if it were not for Lamar Jackson getting injured and missing the last 6 weeks of the season. Prior to that injury, Brown was having a Top 12 season. The move to Arizona however is likely to cap any WR1 potential Hollywood could have had. As mentioned with DHop, this is a spread offense where consistency will always be the enemy for the pass-catchers in the group. Brown is likely to retreat back to his WR3 days full of boom and bust weekly finishes.
Rondale Moore: Contrary to Hopkins and Brown, it's possible Moore's fantasy production goes up in this offense. With Christian Kirk now gone, the slot duties will fall to Moore who should see in increase in usage and potentially his average depth of target. It can't get much lower as it was one of the lowest last season. Even so, it's hard to picture Moore being anything more than a low-end WR3 with all the other options in this loaded offense.
AJ Green: Green was low-key good in 2021. Ok, he was only a WR4 for fantasy purposes averaging just under 10 points per game, but prior to Kyler Murray getting hurt and being forced to miss a month of football, Green was the WR31. That's a mid-range WR3. Having said that, it's not likely that Green will be anything higher than a WR4. He is entering his age 34 season and battling a lot of good weapons on a loaded offense.
Zach Ertz: Ertz move from the City of Brotherly Love to the deserts of Phoenix proved to be fruitful. The veteran tight end who was once on the same level as the elite tight ends managed to finish as the WR4 over the final 11 games of the season. His 12 points per game were top 5. During that span only Mark Andrews was given more targets. Now going into his 2nd season with Kyler Murray and company, expect much of the same. He won't put up Travis Kelce like numbers, but a Top-5 tight end season is definitely in play and he will likely be a bargain in your draft.
Trey McBride: Of all the landing spots that Trey McBride could have ended up, Arizona might have been the worst. Not only will he be the backup to Zach Ertz for the next 3 seasons, but he also plays in a system that only runs two tight end sets 26% of the time. It's very unlikely that McBride will carve out any significant role in year 1 and can be safely left undrafted in redraft leagues.
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