BUFFALO BILLS

by The Fantasy Brothers

Josh Allen: Not a lot changes with our friend josh allen, he should continue to be the QB1 off the board. His numbers dipped a little in 2021 but was still the QB1 for the second consecutive season. However can he repeat for an incredible 3rd consecutive season? He has a lot of competition but he is the safest bet at QB in fantasy. His team added a pass-catching back in James Cook who is unlikely to steal much goalline work. Allen saw an increase by 300 yards to his rushing total in 2021. Some of the rushing workload should decrease just so the franchise can ensure long-term help with their franchise QB but he will still be a weapon on the goalline and his passing efficiency should increase. He is the safest QB in fantasy with the highest floor/ceiling combination. He gives the elite rushing production combined with elite passing production. Draft him as the first QB off the board in all formats. 

Devin Singletary leads off a fairly difficult backfield to project. Singletary has shown elite flashes in one of the most explosive offenses in football (RB3 over the last 3 weeks in 2021.) But he also faces stiff competition from an incoming rookie with high draft capital as well as a quarterback who will vulture a large amount of goalline rushing touchdowns. Fantasy pros has him ranked as RB32 which is higher than his partner James Cook but not super enticing overall. It's a difficult snap share but a great situation so draft Singletary as no higher than a mid RB3. 

James Cook ruined the plans of a lot of Singletary truthers this offseason. He lands in a great situation on one of the best teams in football. Fantasy Pros has Cook ranked as RB38 which seems to be a pretty safe ranking. However there are some very big red flags on Cook’s fantasy potential. His prospect profile is extremely average and is not built to handle a work-horse load in the NFL and was not even the starter at Georgia. It feels very reminiscent of the Clyde Edwards-Helaire problem in 2020 where a mediocre prospect lands in a fantastic situation. That being said there is a lot less risk with Cook than Helaire just based on ADP. Cook has receiving upside on an offense with 184 vacated targets from 2021. At RB38 he feels like a safe upside bet as a mid to low RB3. 

Stefon Diggs: Diggs may be one of the safest wide receiver options in fantasy football. He commands extremely high volume in one of the highest volume passing offenses in football (24% in 2021 which translated to 164 targets, or, #5 in the NFL) He had the most end zone targets (25) and 33 overall red zone targets. Only Cooper Kupp had more with 36. Diggs is only one of a handful of players who have the potential to finish as the WR1 overall so draft him as such. 

Gabriel Davis: Third year is the charm for the breakout right? We thought that 2021 could finally be the year that Davis takes a step forward but he struggled to see the field early on in 2021. However, towards the end of the season his snap count picked up (played an average of 37% of snaps his first 12 games of the season but averaged 87% over final 4 appearances.) Then he had his potential on full display in a massive playoff performance against the chiefs. The Bills have 184 vacated targets left after Emmanuel Sanders, Isaiah Mckenzie, and Cole Beasley departed, so I expect Davis’ target share to see a considerable increase, maybe upwards of 100 targets. Draft him as a mid WR3 but with upside to really shine. 

Jameson Crowder could be a sneaky good player in 2022. He has had a pretty successful career as a slot receiver but has always suffered from poor qb play. (His best might be Ryan Fitzpatrick) Well, that problem is finally solved this season. There are plenty of open targets in Buffalo as previously mentioned and he should immediately step into Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders role for Josh Allen. He is still only 29 years old with good football left in the tank. Keep an eye on where he goes in drafts because he could be an excellent late round flier or even fall to waivers if you are lucky and return excellent value. 

Dawson Knox: Knox was a pleasant surprise in 2021 and was a very valuable asset off waivers. His success in 2021 however has some red flags surrounding it. He was a very touchdown dependent player with 7 tds last season and had a very low target share of 11%. If he sees any regression with his touchdowns he will not return value in 2022. The Bills also added OJ Howard this offseason and while I do not expect much from him for fantasy, any impact he has will only hurt Knox. Draft him as a TE2 but don’t count on another TE1 season.

    The Fantasy Brothers: Ben and Josh are avid fantasy football players that have played together for over 6 years, resulting in a few championships, and a few more “first losers.” Ben and Josh combine their learned knowledge about fantasy to help you own your league mates and avoid those disappointing “first loser” seasons. Their work can be found on Instagram at @fantasybrothers_


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