David Johnson or a 3rd Round Dynasty Pick?

Since today is Super Tuesday, I thought it would be appropriate to put a 🗳Poll up. David Johnson has been mentioned as a Dynasty Sell all over, and for good reason. He became completely useless halfway through last season. He was once a Top 15 dynasty asset, but now is barely ranked inside the Top 100. I was listening to one of the bigger name Fantasy Analysts talk on his podcast about how he would trade DJ for a 3rd round pick in dynasty. His opinion on the matter is that while DJ may return some value, there's a good chance he could also be completely worthless and it's better to get something vs nothing. So, I decided to take a look into rookie draft ADP to see what the 3rd round has given us over the past 6 seasons.  

While looking through rookie ADP dating back to 2014 I found that there were 17 players drafted in the 3rd round (picks 25-36) who have put up at least one RB2, WR2, QB1 or TE1 season. These are what I consider to be more "meaningful" or "useful" seasons. This is based off of a 12-team dynasty league with the 3rd round being picks 25-36. Those players include:

2014: John Brown, Jarvis Landry, James White, Charles Sims
2015: Stefon Diggs
2016: Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Austin Hooper, Alex Collins
2017: Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay, James Conner, Deshaun Watson
2018: D.J. Chark, Dallas Goedert, Josh Allen
2019: Terry McLaurin

There are some great names on this list, and I'd prefer to have most of them over David Johnson easily on my dynasty rosters. There are even plenty of 4th-rounders or undrafted players like Phillip Lindsay, Austin Ekeler and Aaron Jones who have been drafted in the 4th round or even undrafted who I'd prefer as well.

Now to my vote: I'M KEEPING DAVID JOHNSON 

Here's why...you aren't guaranteed to get a player like that during the draft. The 3rd round sample size was pulled from a list of 72 players drafted during rookie drafts. For every Chris Godwin that gets drafted, there are three Riley Ridley's, or Mason Rudolph's getting drafted as well.

So, for me it's all a game of numbers. I still believe David Johnson has the talent to return to an RB2 or possibly even RB1 status. In fact I like those odds a little better than me being able to hit on a 3rd round pick being lottery winner. We still don't know if he will be in Arizona or somewhere else. What if the Cardinals can't resign Kenyan Drake? What if Bruce Arians trades for him in Tampa? If either of those things happen I'm going to be kicking myself that I traded him for a 3rd round pick. We have seen players who everyone gave up on come back and be dominant. Players like Julian Edelman or Larry Fitzgerald come to mind.

So for me, I'm not just cashing out to cash out. If someone wants to offer me a 2nd round pick then I'm all ears, but I'd rather bet on a few more quality seasons from DJ than hitting on a random 3rd round rookie, but maybe that's just me. 🤷🏻‍♂️

 

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