Dynasty Hack: 2020
A few years ago I was listening to a podcast where they were talking about Ben Roethlisberger's home vs road splits and how far apart they were. This wasn’t the first time I had heard this. It was relatively common knowledge with Big Ben. I had also heard the same thing about Drew Brees. I decided to research it and I found that yes, it was true. More than I realized actually. Yes, Ben was awful on the road, but I didn’t realize how great he was at home. He was outstanding. In fact during the timeframe I researched (2015-2017) he averaged the most points at home of any current NFL player. This was before the Patrick Mahomes 2018 season. His 22.5 points per game were more than Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson and even Aaron Rodgers over the course of those years. So I thought to myself. I NEED him on my team. I can get him for practically nothing. How can someone who offers that kind of upside be practically free. If I just pair him with another good quarterback, then I can start Ben during the home games and sit him on the road. So I did it. I was able to trade a 3rd round pick to get him. Piece of cake.
I then thought I should just get another great cheap quarterback and try to combine their schedules to get more home games. I decided to target Drew Brees. He averaged the second most points per game at home. The Brees owner was desperate at tight end, and I was able to get him for Trey Burton. This was right after Burton signed with Chicago and was getting a lot of buzz.
After combining their schedules I got very excited and decided I wanted to push the envelope even further. I went after another older cheap quarterback, Tom Brady. I ended up trading a second round pick to get him. My roster was set. Between the three of them there were only three games during the season where I would have to play one of them on the road. This was quarterback streaming on steroids. It's not something you can do in redraft as you don't have the roster space. But when your bench in dynasty is 20+ players, it's easy to pull off.
Because I did not want to drive myself crazy trying to pick the best quarterback to play, I made myself a rule and that rule was:
- When available, only start the quarterback playing at home.
- If more than one quarterback is playing at home go with the quarterback with the higher Vegas point total.
- If no quarterbacks are playing at home, pick the road quarterback with the highest Vegas point total.
It's that simple. That way I would not be upset or beat myself up, because I was just following the formula. Here were the results:
TOTAL POINTS = 352.3 | Pts Per Game = 22
Because my streamers did not have a bye week, I included week 17 for all other quarterbacks to even it out. Using this method, only Patrick Mahomes and Matt Ryan scored more. Both had career seasons and Ryan only outscored the combo by a half of a point.
Quarterbacks I would look to target in 2020 using this method include:
|Big Ben||Late 3rd|
|Kirk Cousins||Early 3rd|
|Matt Ryan||Late 2nd / Early 3rd|
|Matt Stafford||Late 2nd / Early 3rd|
|Philip Rivers||Late 3rd|
I prefer grabbing a dome or warm-weather quarterback like Brees, Cousins, Ryan, Stafford, Rivers or Brady so that you do not have to worry as much with adverse weather conditions later in the year. If you can get your hands on three of these quarterbacks, great, four is even better. In dynasty you have the room and this only maximizes your potential. Plus it's cheap. You can pull this off with as little as a couple of 2nd or 3rd round rookie picks or just a couple of bench players. You're not going to get an elite quarterback with anything close to that.
If you have a player like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray or Deshaun Watson, I would recommend trading them away for a very useful running back, wide receiver or tight end. Preferably in a deal with one of the above-mentioned quarterbacks to pair with. Your team will look a lot better with a combo of the above quarterbacks plus a player like Miles Sanders, Amari Cooper or George Kittle than it will with just one of the elite passers. Now make it happen. HUT HUT!
If you are interested in playing year round fantasy football, consider joining a dynasty league. The offseason is just as fun as the regular season. Once you start playing dynasty, redraft leagues will feel like a cake walk. Click here to learn more about what a dynasty league is and how it differs from your traditional fantasy football league, and if you're interested in finding a league, shoot me an email.