Fantasy Trends from Week 3
by Upperhand Fantasy
Identifying trends in underlying usage can help us stay one step ahead of the competition by not focusing on the box score, but focusing on the roles that drive fantasy production over a large sample.
STOCK UP ⬆️ - RB David Montgomery, Bears
David Montgomery is coming off a nightmare game, mostly because of the overall offensive product that the Bears put on the field this past week. Justin Fields couldn’t get it going, Matt Nagy didn’t help, and the Bears offense was shut down as a result. This actually becomes a great opportunity to scoop Montgomery up in a trade if you can. Montgomery opened up the year as the primary early-down back but shared a lot of the passing work with Damien Williams. Over the last two weeks, however, not only has he played over 80% of snaps in both games but his routes/dropback have gone up to an elite level - 62% in Week 2, followed by 76% in Week 3. Williams’ routes/dropback has gone down significantly each week. Montgomery ran 25 routes in Week 3 compared to Williams’ 5. Montgomery playing 80% of snaps in a losing game script is a great thing. If you don’t have him, I’d trade for him at his lowest point.
STOCK UP ⬆️ - WR Michael Pittman, Colts
The targets were spread out to start the year in Indy, but Michael Pittman has taken over in a big way over the last two weeks. He has seen 12 targets in each of the last two weeks, which has accounted for a whopping 33% of the overall target share during that span. Elite target share. Not only is he getting the targets, but he’s also being targeted all over the field, including deep. He’s accounted for more than 50% of Indy’s air yards over the last weeks. Elite air yard share. The one area he’s lacking is end zone targets; he only has 1 for the year, while Pascal has 5, which resulted in 3 TDs. He is tied with Pascal for red-zone targets, but we need more in the end zone itself for his TD numbers to be there.
STOCK DOWN ⬇️ - WR Robby Anderson, Panthers
Robby’s playing a near-full complement of snaps, but he’s not being targeted. Part of it is his QB, part of it is his new role. Robby simply wasn’t running as deep last season; his average depth of targets last year was 9.8 - pretty close to what Moore is getting right now with his 10.5. This year, Robby’s average depth of target is 18.4. That alone is a recipe for inconsistency. Moore was at 13.7 last season. The roles have almost reversed. Moore is finally being treated like an alpha WR1, the role he could not secure last season. Now that Moore is commanding a 31% target share compared to the much more even distribution from last season, Anderson is bound to suffer. Even Moore’s target share settles in at 26% or so, the rest can re-distribute between multiple receivers. Terrace Marshall Jr. has a 14% target share compared to Anderson’s 10%, and there’s an even wider gap on a per route basis. Marshall has been coming on the field in 3 WR sets, but his snaps actually jumped up to a solid 73% in Week 3. With Dan Arnold traded away, this can mean more snaps for Marshall, who Darnold has shown more of an affinity towards on a per route basis. Marshall is also running more of the routes closer to the part of the field Arnold was running them. You can hold out hope for Robby, but unless his role reverts back to what he was doing last season, he’s dead weight on your roster.