Fantasy Trends from Week 4
by Upperhand Fantasy
Identifying trends in underlying usage can help us stay one step ahead of the competition by not focusing on the box score, but focusing on the roles that drive fantasy production over a large sample.
STOCK UP ⬆️ - RB Zack Moss, Bills
Zack Moss was reported to be a healthy scratch for Week 1, and he was immediately discarded to the waiver wire as a result. However, he apparently wasn’t ready after missing so much time in camp because of injury.
While he didn’t lead his backfield in snaps in Week 2, he was the clear short-yardage and goal-line back right away.
Fast forward to Week 5, he’s had two straight games playing more snaps than Devin Singletary, he’s running more routes than Singletary, he’s the main goal-line back, and he’s the primary 3rd down/2-minute back. On a great offense, all of those roles add up to usable fantasy RB.
He’s not an RB2 just yet, but because of the offense he’s on, he’ll be placed in opportune positions more often than not. If he can separate himself from Singletary just a little bit more, he’ll make his way to the every-week RB2 ranks.
STOCK UP ⬆️ - WR Kenny Golladay, Giants
While the absence of both Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton assisted Kenny Golladay to his first 100-yard game for the Giants, his usage after a slow start shows promise going forward.
First of all, the Giants are ranked 7th in passing yards over the first four games. They’re 9th in yards/attempt, and 7th in yards/completion. 74% of their total yards have come as a result of the passing game - that ranks 6th.
In Week 2, he ran a route on 91% of pass plays and received a 25% target share, and that was with Shepard and Slayton on the field. He was limited coming into Week 3, and only ran a route on 70% of plays. With him back healthy in Week 4, he ran a route on 94% of routes and received a 23% target share.
He’s gaining a rapport with Daniel Jones… who’s actually playing well this season. He’s also getting targeted deep as we’ve been used to throughout his career; he’s 5th among WRs in aDOT.
While we might be tempted to discredit Golladay because of Shepard’s imminent return, but this time will help the big-money-free agent continue to build much-needed rapport with his QB. As long as Golladay can stay healthy, he has the makings of a solid WR2 moving forward, even when Shepard is back.
STOCK DOWN ⬇️ - RB Myles Gaskin, Dolphins
Myles Gaskin is not startable right now. The roles between the Dolphins’ three RBs shift every week. Gaskin’s snap share has gone down each of the last three weeks: 62% to 52% to 22%. His routes/dropback have gone down from 47% to 38% to 24%. He received 0 targets in Week 4.
Malcolm Brown is currently getting the majority of the rushing work, he’s running the most routes, he’s the short-yardage back, and he’s the primary passing-down back. You would think that turns into opportunity and production. Nope.
You can hold Gaskin as a stash in the hopes that the Dolphins coaches recognize who the best RB in this backfield is, but it seems as though they are continuing to focus on the downfield passing attack.