Hopkins vs Adams
Two wide receivers that are very close in ADP this year are DeAndre Hopkins and Davante Adams. FantasyPros currently has them one spot apart in their 2020 rankings at 7 and 8. Fantasy players are going to be stuck in a tough spot trying to pick between the two. It's a good argument. Both players had over a 30% target share, averaged 10 targets and 7 receptions per game and averaged roughly 18 ppr points per game. They are practically statistical twins. So, who should you take first in 2020?
Let's start with Adams. Last season, despite playing through turf toe, Adams averaged the 6th most fantasy points per game. He was Top 12 in target share, targets per game, receptions per game and yards per game and was Top 5 in yards per route run. He has very little in the way of target competition. If they take a wide receiver early in the draft, this situation could chance, but as of now he's Rodgers' go-to guy and I fully expect Adams to have a nice bounce back season as a Top 5 finisher at the wide receiver position.
As for Hopkins, he was part of the biggest blockbuster trade this offseason was easily when Houston dealt him to the desert for David Johnson and some picks. This was a great move for the Cardinals and a will be huge for Kyler Murray's development and fantasy value. As for Hopkins, I do not see this as a good thing for Hopkins' fantasy outlook. It's not terribly or anything, but I think it does ding his fantasy outlook some in 2020. The Cardinals run a wide-open offense with lots of 4-wide sets designed to spread the ball out. I believe this will be the first time since Hopkins' rookie season that we see his target share drop below 26%. Hopkins has never had much in the way of target competition in all his time in Houston, but now he gets one of the greatest wide receivers of all time Larry Fitzgerald as well as third year standout Christian Kirk who both demanded target shares last season over 20%.
There is a lot of misinformation regurgitated about the Cardinals running one of the fastest paced offenses in the NFL which allows for more plays to all of their playmakers. This was the hype of the Kliff Kingsbury offense, but in reality was not the case in 2019. The Cardinals actually ranked 22nd in total offensive plays ran according to The Football Database. They ranked 18th in total pass plays. Both rankings are not much different than where Houston ranked last season. The Texans were 17th and 20th in those categories.
If you're stuck with this decision in the middle of the 1st round, my advice is to go with Adams over Hopkins. I'd actually consider taking Julio Jones, Tyreek Hill and Chris Godwin ahead of Hopkins in 2020.
If you are interested in playing year round fantasy football, consider joining a dynasty league. The offseason is just as fun as the regular season. Once you start playing dynasty, redraft leagues will feel like a cake walk. Click here to learn more about what a dynasty league is and how it differs from your traditional fantasy football league, and if you're interested in finding a league, shoot me an email.