How Clyde Stole The Dynasty 1.01
Right now, there are Dynasty League Rookie Drafts being conducted left and right. And in those drafts, there is one thing certain, Clyde Edwards-Helaire (CEH) is the first overall pick in most of them. That wasn't the case a few weeks ago. In fact, CEH was averaging around the pick 1.08 in dynasty rookie drafts leading up to the draft according to data from Fantasy Football Calculator. I'll be honest, I wasn't all that high on him either. I was all about Jonathan Taylor. But that all changed April 23rd at around 11:53pm EST, when Kansas City selected CEH with the last pick of the first round. CEH was catapulted to the 1.01. I wasn't buying into him as the 1.01, not for a week or so, I was holding strong to Jonathan Taylor. I even love the landing spot in Indy, but eventually, I too fell victim to the Andy Reid narrative, and if you have the 1.01 in your rookie drafts, you better jump on board.
Since Andy Reid has been a coach in the NFL, one thing has been consistent, and that has been his running backs = RB1's in fantasy football. That dates all the way back to Brian Westbrook in the early 2000's. Just looking at the past 10 seasons, this is what we have seen:
- 2019 | Damien Williams = RB25 ppg
- 2018 | Kareem Hunt = RB8 ppg
- 2017 | Kareem Hunt = RB4
- 2016 | Spencer Ware = RB17 ppg
- 2015 | Jamaal Charles = RB2 ppg
- 2014 | Jamaal Charles = RB7
- 2013 | Jamaal Charles = RB1
- 2012 | LeSean McCoy = RB7 ppg
- 2011 | LeSean McCoy = RB2
- 2010 | LeSean McCoy = RB2
I am sort of cherry picking the numbers as some of these finishes are on a points per game basis, but outside of Jamaal Charles 2015 season, all of these running backs played in at least 10 games for the above seasons. The two worst seasons by an Andy Reid running back were Spencer Ware (6th round pick) in 2016 who averaged 13.8 points per game and Damien Williams' (undrafted) 12.8 points per game last season. Both of these running backs were average at best and mainly just a product of the system. Even though Williams was average during the regular season, he put up 27, 20 and 29 points during the playoffs.
Bottom line, this is an explosive offense for running backs, even for an undrafted one like Williams. What do you think is going to happen when Andy Reid deploys a 1st round running back? He's never had one of those before. His highest drafted running back was LeSean McCoy in the 2nd round back in 2010. McCoy has been one of the best fantasy backs since he entered the league. Expect the same to happen for CEH.
Now, back to those of you who are still not convinced. If you have Jonathan Taylor, J.K. Dobbins, Cam Akers or D'Andre Swift ahead of him, and are thinking of taking one of them over CEH........STOP! DON'T DO IT! Not only for the reasons I laid out above, but also because dynasty is all about VALUE. Even if it's perceived value. If 90% of the analysts and people playing have CEH as the 1.01, then you have to follow suite. I created a poll on my Instagram page asking who the 1.01 should be, and CEH won with nearly twice as many votes as Taylor.
If you really want Taylor, then trade back, but don't draft him first. When building a dynasty you want to accumulate as much value as possible, and right now, CEH has the most of any rookie. In 2018, there were Rashaad Penny believers out there who thought he would be better than Saquon Barkley, but they would have been crazy to draft him ahead of Barkley just based on their values and adp alone. Well, to a lesser extent, it's the same thing with CEH. The public is all over him, so you have to take him. You just have to. I didn't want it to be the case, but it is....it just is.
If you are interested in playing year round fantasy football, consider joining a dynasty league. The offseason is just as fun as the regular season. Once you start playing dynasty, redraft leagues will feel like a cake walk. Click here to learn more about what a dynasty league is and how it differs from your traditional fantasy football league, and if you're interested in finding a league, shoot me an email.