Julio Jones: Dynasty Outlook
Julio Jones has been arguably one of the best wide receivers in the league for the past 9 seasons. He finished his age 30 season as the WR3 in both overall points and points per game and won people fantasy championships thanks to his insane weeks 15 and 16 stat lines. So, what do you do with him in dynasty? How many WR1 seasons does he have left? Father Time catches up eventually. Calvin Johnson and Demaryius Thomas are recent examples of how fast fortunes can turn. Could Julio be next? I took a look at players that comp to Julio over to past 20 years to help paint a picture of what we might be able to expect. The criteria I used was well-established wide receivers who were 6 foot 3 and at least 220 pounds and what they did starting with their age 30 season. This is what I found.
Jordy Nelson
31 WR2
32 WR46
33 WR37
Andre Johnson
31 WR2
32 WR10
33 WR29
Larry Fitzgerald
31 WR51
32 WR7
33 WR11
34 WR4
35 WR25
Terrell Owens
31 played 7 games WR1 ppg
32 WR7
33 WR3
34 WR11
35 WR26
36 WR16
When looking at the above, it’s a bit of a mixed bag. Julio is much more of an athlete than Jordy who’s age 30 ACL tear accelerated his decline and had only 1 WR1 season. Athletically he is most comparable to Andre Johnson, with both being above the 90th percentile SPARQ-x scores, however Julio has an advantage that Andre never had, and that’s a great quarterback. Or at least a really good one. That is something none of the WRs on this list benefited from consistently. While it is a small sample size, the average for the above players is 2.5 WR1 seasons from age 31 on. I would argue Julio is better than all of the above WRs. He is under contract for the next 4 years and the teams rarely lets him practice during the week. They keep him fresh. I would not just be looking to GET OUT ahead. It all depends on the quality of your team and what your league mates are willing to trade you. Do you have Julio on any of your dynasty teams? Let me know. I’d love to hear your thoughts.
Jordy Nelson
31 WR2
32 WR46
33 WR37
Andre Johnson
31 WR2
32 WR10
33 WR29
Larry Fitzgerald
31 WR51
32 WR7
33 WR11
34 WR4
35 WR25
Terrell Owens
31 played 7 games WR1 ppg
32 WR7
33 WR3
34 WR11
35 WR26
36 WR16
When looking at the above, it’s a bit of a mixed bag. Julio is much more of an athlete than Jordy who’s age 30 ACL tear accelerated his decline and had only 1 WR1 season. Athletically he is most comparable to Andre Johnson, with both being above the 90th percentile SPARQ-x scores, however Julio has an advantage that Andre never had, and that’s a great quarterback. Or at least a really good one. That is something none of the WRs on this list benefited from consistently. While it is a small sample size, the average for the above players is 2.5 WR1 seasons from age 31 on. I would argue Julio is better than all of the above WRs. He is under contract for the next 4 years and the teams rarely lets him practice during the week. They keep him fresh. I would not just be looking to GET OUT ahead. It all depends on the quality of your team and what your league mates are willing to trade you. Do you have Julio on any of your dynasty teams? Let me know. I’d love to hear your thoughts.
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