MIAMI DOLPHINS

by The Fantasy Brothers

Tua Tagovailoa: much like Zach Wilson for the Jets, we will know what Tua is made of this season. He already had a breakout star in Jalen Waddle and then Miami added possibly the most dynamic weapon in football with Tyreek Hill. Pair that with a new head coach from a great offensive scheme along with other solid weapons like Chase Edmonds, Mike Gesicki, and Cedrick Wilson, and you have one of the most high powered offenses on paper. It now rests solely with Tua. He has already shown the ability to be a very accurate passer so if he can bring a little more deep passing into his game and he could be a sleeper QB1. But for now, he should be a fine QB2 target. 

Chase Edmonds: over his last 28 games averages about 3.4 catches per game and has the same reception rate as Cordarrelle Patterson did in 2021. Simply put, he’s a potential fantasy cheat code with his receiving work. However, there’s a lot of competition in the Dolphins backfield for touches. Sony Michel and Raheem Mostert are newly acquired as well, and should divide up the first and second down work between themselves. Edmonds should own third down. If he can get on the field on first or second down with some consistency, the Dolphins is a RB-Friendly backfield. Myles Gaskin had 63 targets last year, which was #10 amongst RBs. I believe Edmonds is a better receiver, and a better runner, so I see a pathway for him to be relevant. It all comes down to if he can be effective on the early-down work he does receive.

The other RBs: Sony Michel has been productive in stretches throughout his career, as has Raheem Mostert. But both of these players are deficient pass-catchers, and in Mostert’s case, have a tough time staying on the field. I won’t be taking shots on either of these players in drafts, but if Edmonds gets injured at any point, either one of these guys could pop and have a relevant fantasy week. Outside of that, both of these players should be avoided.

Jaylen Waddle: while Waddle became a star last year, hauling in 140 targets and 1,000 yards as a rookie, he did so in a fashion that I believe can be repeated in 2022. He hauled in a 24% target share for the Dolphins, which could easily repeat. I imagine Mike McDaniel is salivating over the opportunity to scheme plays for Tyreek Hill, and Tyreek Hill-lite. Waddle and Hill could both put up similar numbers, have a 25% target share, and divvy up the red-zone work. I project the lion's-share of the Dolphins passing game to funnel between these two players. Since that’s the case, I would rather take shots on Waddle instead of Hill in drafts, due to cost. Hill is still being drafted as a WR1, while Waddle has fallen to WR19 in drafts. I’m taking the 4th or 5th rd price over the 2nd.

Tyreek Hill: Tyreek and Jaylen Waddle should both be prolific players for the Dolphins next year. Hill is fresh off receiving a massive contract, but gets a huge downgrade at QB to finish out his career. Gone are the days where we draft Hill as a top-3 WR in fantasy. His current price is WR9ish, which feels high. Waddle last year got 140 targets, and that translated to only the WR13. I still believe Hill is massively talented, but I'm fading him due to cost this year. I expect him to be productive, but not enough to feel good about taking him in the 2nd round of drafts.

Cedrick Wilson: was interesting last season in Dallas when Amari Cooper was injured but don’t expect more of the same this season. He is a fine real life football player but will help the dolphins succeed more than he will help your fantasy team. He will once again be relegated to WR3 duties while getting a downgrade at qb. He will be worth a waiver pickup if Waddle or Hill are injured but not much else. 

Mike Gesicki: a solid tight end in 2021 but never really popped, outside of a handful of weeks. He had a very good target share last season with 112 targets but suffered the same downfall of Kyle Pitts in the touchdown department with only 2. While we should hope for some positive regression of touchdowns, it is unlikely he sees the same target volume with the weapons added in 2021. That being said he still has higher upside than most TEs you will find so consider him a high TE1.