Players I'm Likely To Avoid In 2020: Aaron Rodgers
When the 2020 Fantasy Drafts roll around, there will likely be a lot of players I’m looking to avoid. Some because I don’t believe in their talent. Some because of coaching changes. More often than not however, it will be because of their ADP. As the old adage goes, “I don’t hate the player, I hate their ADP.” For this post, that player will likely be Aaron Rodgers. Since 2010 Rodgers has been a top 3 drafted QB in most fantasy leagues. Often times he’s the first QB taken. But he has not lived up to that draft capital over the past two seasons. He has finished as the QB9 and QB15 in points per game over that span. For 2020 drafts, I still see him going higher than he should. I predict he will still be a Top 5 drafted QB. Likely in the 5 spot after Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson. That’s too high. I see him as more of a back end QB1. Let’s dissect.
Game Logs: The HUGE asterisk in Rodgers 2019 has to be pinned to his Week 7 performance against the Raiders when he scored a total of 6 touchdowns. He scored 17% of his entire season during that one game when excluding week 17. If we look at the other 14 games of the season, he averaged a mere 15.6 points per game, good for the QB24. Let me repeat that, if you don’t include that one monster game, Rodgers was only the 24th best QB in fantasy. That’s pretty insane.
I think Rodgers can play better than he did in 2019, but I’m not sure his game is translating as he ages as well as it has for Drew Brees and Tom Brady. I think his best days are behind him and drafters need to adjust that perception.....but I don’t think that happens this year.