Players I'm Likely To Avoid In 2020: Raheem Mostert

On Sunday, Raheem Mostert rushed for 220 yards on 29 attempts. He averaged 7.59 YPC. On that many attempts, that’s very impressive. He also rushed for 4 touchdowns. He ended the day with 48.6 PPR fantasy points. In fact, since he took over as the lead back in week 13, he has averaged 20.74 points per game when you include the playoffs. This has caused some of you to say he deserves to be a top 10 RB in next season’s fantasy drafts. To me that’s silly. I want no part of him in 2020.....here’s why.

Did you know Mostert turns 28 in April? This is his 5th year in the league. Prior to this season he had a grand total of 297 total rush yards. His total ppr points = 32. I took a look back to see if there have been any RBs who followed a similar path of 4 years in the league and less than 50 total ppr points. Guess what? I couldn’t find one. He literally doesn’t have a comp when I looked back 15 years. The closest I could find were Michael Turner in 2008 and Jerome Harrison in 2009. .
Turner sat behind L.T. in San Diego for 4 seasons before getting his shot. He still had 175 ppr points during those years. After his breakout season, he had 4 productive years with Atlanta.

Harrison didn’t do much over his first three seasons in Cleveland before he finally broke out in 2009. Even still he did at least score 100 points during those first 3 years. After that season he was literally never seen from again. Only playing 2 more seasons and scoring a grand total of 63 points over that span.

The difference between Turner and Harrison was that Turner was a huge 250 lb back who was able to be Atlanta’s workhorse. Harrison was a 205 pound back similar to Mostert (190) who was not able to carry a larger workload. Backs under 200 pounds don’t have a great history of consistent fantasy success. Go see my post about Tarik Cohen from July 26th if you want more info on that. He also has a coach who loves to use a committee and has two other good backs on his roster. Because of that and the huge hype surrounding Mostert after his late season surge, I’m going to go ahead and let others draft him. Maybe he’s the outlier, but I’ll let someone else take that chance in my league.

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