Players I'm Likely To Avoid In 2020: Russell Wilson
When the 2020 Fantasy Drafts roll around, there will likely be a lot of players I’m looking to avoid. Some because I don’t believe in their talent. Some because of coaching changes. More often than not however, it will be because of their ADP. As the old adage goes, “I don’t hate the player, I hate their ADP.” For this post, that player will likely be Russell Wilson. Let me make this clear. I think Russell Wilson is the 2nd best QB in the league behind Patrick Mahomes. Russ had a great season as a whole. He finished as the QB4 in total scoring using Yahoo’s default scoring. However, that doesn’t tell the whole story, and I think he will be drafted too high come draft time. Let’s dissect.
Points Per Game: When taking a look at this stat, he drops from the QB4 to the QB7. He gets passed up by Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson and Matt Stafford.
Game Logs: This is where you really see the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde of his season. Weeks 1-9, Wilson was the QB1. He was averaging 25 points per game, 2nd to only Lamar Jackson. He had two QB1 weekly performances, and five Top 5 performances, capped off by a 5 touchdown performance at home vs Tampa. He was paying off greatly.....until he wasn’t.
Weeks 10-16: After his HUGE game vs Tampa, things changed in a hurry. During the final 7 games of the season Wilson cracked the Top 10 in QB weekly scoring just once. He never had a game with more than two passing touchdowns or 20 fantasy points. And if he was your QB in the playoffs, he scored you 10 points in week 14 and 11 in week 16. Essentially, 51% of his scoring happened during 5 games. That’s great for those 5 games, but bad for the other 10. Yikes!
Looking ahead: If it weren’t for the insane season Lamar Jackson had, Russ may have won MVP. Because of that, I get the sense he will be drafted too high in 2020. The casual fantasy players will overdraft him and he will be a Top 5 drafted QB. That’s too high for me. I’ll be waiting and drafting guys like Stafford, Winston, Brees, Ryan, Murray, etc., who will likely get you similar point production, but you can take much later in your drafts. In the meantime I’ll be eagerly waiting to see where Russ’s ADP ends up.