Drew Lock/Geno Smith: I am not targeting any Seahawks QBs in fantasy leagues this season - even 2 QB and Superflex Leagues. This is going to be a bad team in a really hard division, and I just don’t think either of these guys are talented enough to be anywhere near fantasy relevant.
Rashaad Penny: Rashaad Penny was one of the best running backs in football… for the final five weeks of the season. He averaged 22 PPR PPG over those weeks despite only a 58% snap share. During this span, he had no role in the receiving game, but was extremely efficient on the ground, averaging 8.56, 3.54, 7.94, 6.8, and 8.26 YPC in those respective five games. Penny had his two games with the most snaps and touches in the final two weeks, with 28 and 23 touches and a 64% and 74% snap share in those two games.
Now, the problem is that this is a small sample size, and he hasn’t done much in his four year career. In his four year career, he has seven games with >15 fantasy points… and four of them came in those final few weeks. In addition, the Seahawks drafted Kenneth Walker early in the second, and he is a stud (but yet another back with very little receiving upside). I think the odds of a top-24 season from Penny are low, as he would need to fend off the talented Kenneth Walker, stay healthy, and be productive despite a very poor offense.
Kenneth Walker: From a prospect perspective, Walker fits the bill. Looking at RBs drafted in the early second round (picks 1-16) with an nfl.com score of 6.0 or more since 2014, the list is good. D’Andre Swift, Javonte Williams, Nick Chubb, Breece Hall, TJ Yeldon, Ronald Jones, Dalvin Cook, Jonathan Taylor, Kenneth Walker, Kerryon Johnson, Derrick Henry, and Joe Mixon. Out of that list, there are 3 busts and 7 hits, good for a 70% hit rate. I qualify a player as a HIT if they have had an RB1 season or have been valued as a dynasty RB1 based on consensus ranks at some point in their career. Breece, Kenneth are two
However, that list doesn’t do as great in year one as you would think. Only one of those players finished as an RB1 in their rookie season, and only three finished as an RB2. Despite that, five of those running backs finished as an RB1 at least once. Pretty good for a sample of really 10 guys (Breece and Kenneth are TBD).
If you combine speed into that sample of guys, the trend is more noticeable. Out of those guys, here are the backs with a 4.50 40 yard or better: Swift, Breece, Cook,. Taylor, Kenneth, and Mixon. Pretty good company to be a part of.
So, I expect Kenneth Walker to be a stud at some point in his career. It ultimately depends on when he is being drafted in fantasy drafts, but I am not drafting him as anything more than a bench piece in 2022 due to the lack of receiving upside, Penny’s presence, and rough offense. I can see a likely scenario when Penny goes down and Kenneth Walker goes off.I am willing to take a shot at Walker later if I can.
DK Metcalf: If someone looks at Metcalf’s splits without Russell Wilson on paper, it will look like he is fine. In weeks 6-8, he scored 11.8, 17.6, and 22.3 points respectively, for an average of 17.2 PPR PPG. However, this was because he scored 3 touchdowns in these games - one of which was a really long, lucky touchdown. He only averaged 6 targets a game and 4.7 receptions a game during this span, so the volume was not really there. While I like Metcalf the player, I don’t trust him in a low volume, low efficiency offense next season and will likely be avoiding him.
Tyler Lockett: I am not high on Lockett at all. While he was not just a product of Russell Wilson, there is no denying the chemistry that those two had. I do not consider Lockett as a QB-proof wide receiver, and he will likely struggle with Drew Lock and Geno Smith. I am mostly avoiding Lockett in fantasy drafts this season.
Noah Fant: The odds of Fant being a top-8 tight end are slim. He has to compete with Metcalf and Lockett for targets on a terrible offense. If he doesn’t have top-8 upside for tight ends, he really isn’t worth drafting unless you are in a really deep league.
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