Team Preview: Green Bay Packers
Continuing our series on Team Previews of all 32 Teams, we move to 2020's 1st-place team from the NFC North, the Green Bay Packers.
The Packers scored the most points in 2020 while throwing for the 9th most passing yards. They were 8th in rushing yards on their way to a 13-3 record. Vegas had their Win Total at 10.5 games, but all the uncertainty about Aaron Rodgers return has forced their win totals to be taken off the board. That and the rest of the entire offenses' future depends on the HOF signal caller's return.
Aaron Rodgers: Regardless of where Rodgers plays, he is going to suffer negative regression in TD passes. His 9.1% TD rate was the 2nd highest of all time. We saw Lamar Jackson go from 36 TD passes in 2019 to 26 in 2020, and I think we can expect something similar with Aaron. I see him as more of a mid-QB1 versus the QB2 finish he had in 2020.
Aaron Jones: So much of Aaron Jones' success comes from the Packers' ability to find the end zone. Jones has 30 TDs over the past two seasons. With Rodgers, Jones is an easy mid-RB1. Without him, we are looking at an RB2.
Davante Adams: Adams' 2020 season was historic. He averaged a full 2 points per game more than Michael Thomas's historic 2019 season. Much of that can be credited to his 18 receiving TDs. A number that will surely come down no matter who is slinging the ball. With Rodgers, Adams needs to be the first WR off the board. No matter how much regression we predict. Without Rodgers, obviously, that's a different story. In the 2nd scenario, I'd look at Adams as a back-end WR1. I'd actually view him in the same area as I do Michael Thomas currently. In 2017, Rodgers was only able to play in 7 games and Adams was able to finish the year 8th in points per game with Brett Hundley behind center.
Allen Lazard: With Rodgers, he has a WR4 flex play option. Without him, he can stay on the waiver wire.
Robert Tonyan: One of my biggest avoids this year will likely be Robert Tonyan. More than 1/3 of his fantasy points came via TDs. 11 of his 52 receptions were in the endzone. That will be impossible to replicate even with Rodgers under center. With Rodgers, I see him as a back-end TE1 and without a back-end TE2.