Todd Gurley: Dynasty Outlook
Todd Gurley is another intriguing player in dynasty. He is only 25 years old, but a de-generative knee condition in my mind has made him more of a 29-year-old running back. Long gone are his days of the number 1 overall dynasty asset. Whatever you get for him now is the most you’re going to be able to get, and I’m of the opinion that you take it. He finished 2019 as the RB14 in ppr formats. RB17 in points per game. Both are not too bad, but if you take a closer look, his season was VERY touchdown dependent. I took a dive into all running backs with at least 100 touches on the season and what percentage of their points came from touchdowns, and Todd Gurley ranked number 1. 38% of his fantasy points came from touchdowns. By comparison, Leonard Fournette only had 7% of his points come from touchdowns. That ranked 51st. Christian McCaffrey ranked 21st with only 24% of his points coming from touchdowns. And both of those players vastly outperformed Gurley in 2019. Both of those players could actually benefit from positive touchdown regression next season whereas Todd Gurley will most likely negatively regress in touchdowns next year. His 3.8 yards per carry ranked 72nd. Gurley appears to have lost his explosive ability and unfortunately is likely to always be a workload liability due to the knee issue. @FantasyPros has him ranked 28th in dynasty rankings, and I think that’s too high. Players ranked below him who I’d trade for straight up include...Lamar Jackson, Stefon Diggs, Patrick Mahomes, Courtland Sutton, Cooper Kupp, Miles Sanders, Kerryon Johnson, Allen Robinson and A.J. Brown just to name a few. There are even more further down on that list that I would still take over him. My advice, is get out....if you still can. What do you all think?