Trends From Week 7
by Upperhand Fantasy
Identifying trends in underlying usage can help us stay one step ahead of the competition by not focusing on the box score, but focusing on the roles that drive fantasy production over a large sample.
STOCK UP ⬆️ - RB Khalil Herbert, Bears
Khalil Herbert is looking like he belongs in the NFL, and it seems like he has already leapt over Damien Williams pretty easily on the Bears depth chart.
With Williams active on Sunday against the Bucs, Herbert played on 77% of snaps and received 22 opportunities. The fact that was on the field for all third downs (except one) and that he saw 5 targets (caught all of them for 33 yards) makes me believe that the coaches believe in him as a workhorse back.
Herbert’s first three NFL games:
The fact that he was able to run for 100 yards against the Bucs was extremely impressive, and as a result he should be in lineups as a high-end RB2 going forward as long as David Montgomery is out, even with relatively tough matchups on the horizon.
I would guess Montgomery won’t be back until after their Week 10 bye, especially if Herbert continues to impress; it would probably make sense to give Montgomery another free week to rest.
When Montgomery is back, it would be interesting to see if Herbert complements him. Montgomery was starting to take more control over the backfield in a similar way Herbert did over Williams, so my guess is that Williams is the odd man out, while Herbert has a shot at complementing Montgomery.
I’d reach out to the Montgomery manager in your league to get a gauge on how they feel about Herbert’s emergence, because if they’re nervous, you might be able to buy him cheap. Montgomery will continue to be the guy in Chicago given how good he looked earlier this season, and he has a great schedule coming out of his bye all the way through the fantasy playoffs.
I’d also add Herbert’s name to the small list of high upside, every-down handcuffs, so he’s worth a stash even when Montgomery is the guy again.
STOCK UP ⬆️ - TE Dallas Goedert, Eagles
With Zach Ertz headed to Arizona, Dallas Goedert is getting the opportunity we were all hoping for. He was already targeted at a very healthy 21% per route run over his career, so it was just about getting those routes up. Well, in his first game without Ertz, he ran a route on 88% of drop backs. That’s elite territory.
He didn’t get targeted at a high rate, but baby steps right? He still came through for you on only 5 targets. Coming into this game, Jalen Hurts was targeted the position at a 26% clip. 40% of end zone targets was going to Goedert, who by the way, did catch a 2-pt conversion this past week.
Goedert has Top-5 upside because of what he’s done already in limited snaps and routes throughout his career. Even though we expect the targets to come, he’s one of the few tight ends that can get it done on limited targets; he’s 2nd among all tight ends in yards/reception. He’s also PFF’s 5th highest graded tight end this year.
If you’re in need of a high upside TE, I’d try and buy him before he starts going off.
STOCK DOWN ⬇️ - RB Mike Davis, Falcons
Cordarrelle Patterson is taking over the Falcons backfield. Mike Davis was still on the field for 60% of snaps, but he had only 4 carries to Patterson’s 14. Overall, Patterson had 18 opportunities to Davis’ 4.
Davis’ snaps have been decreasing slightly each of the last few weeks, and his share of the rushing attempts have followed. He owned less than 50% of that rushing share in Weeks 4 and 5, and then it dropped down to below 20% this past week. His routes were dropping as well, but that jumped back up this week.
Patterson also so all of the short yardage work this past week. That leaves one question: What is Davis’ role?
We’ll see if the pendulum swings back towards a true split with Davis this week, but this seems to be a trend. If it continues, Davis won’t be much of a fantasy option.