The Value of Dynasty Rookie Draft Picks
The NFL Draft is tomorrow. Due to the lack of sports, I'm betting this will be the most widely watched draft ever. If you have a rookie dynasty draft coming up, you are going to be glued to the TV.
If you purchased the Dynasty Guide, you may have seen the draft capital charts showing where the top players in fantasy football were drafted in each round. What they show is that during the first three rounds of the NFL Draft is where you find the most success. Players drafted on Thursday and Friday are much more likely to hit because those coaches and GM's used higher draft picks to select them. They are incentivized to give those players every opportunity to succeed, because if they do, it makes them look justified in selecting them. Players drafted outside of the first three rounds are not afforded the same opportunity and WAY more often than not are flushed out of the league within a few short years. This is evident if you take a look at the top fantasy performers over the past 6 seasons.
For quarterbacks it's the 1st round. Of the top 25 quarterbacks in points per game over the past 6 years, 72% of them were drafted in the first round.
For running backs there do tend to be a few taken outside of the first three rounds that do hit. This is because NFL front offices each year are waiting longer and longer to draft the position. Of the Top 50 running backs in points per game since 2014, just under 2/3 of them were drafted during the first three rounds.
Wide receivers are a bit more like quarterbacks. You want them to be drafted early. Preferably in the first two rounds. The third round is still good however. 75% of all the Top 50 wide receivers in points per game since 2014 were drafted within the first three rounds of the NFL draft.
Finally, tight ends. 72% of all the Top 25 Tight ends in points per game since 2014 were drafted during the first three rounds of the NFL Draft.
So, how can this article benefit those of you who are about to have rookie drafts in the next couple of weeks. Here's how:
Over the past week, I have taken a look at a large number of mock drafts by analysts from all the major tv networks and internet sites to see how many Quarterbacks, Running Backs, Wide Receivers and Tight Ends they project will be drafted during the first three rounds. Out of those what I am seeing is that the average number of these fantasy skills positions they are projecting to be drafted in the first three rounds is 32.33. Of course this is just an estimate, but what you can do with this information is try to plan ahead. If you have a rookie pick in your dynasty draft that's outside of the top 32 or 33 picks, try to trade up a few spots to ensure you get a player drafted within the first three rounds of the NFL Draft. If you can't trade up, consider trading that pick for a future rookie draft pick next year. Either way you're just improving your probability of hitting on one of your draft picks. Maybe it's just by a small amount, but those little moves can make a big difference down the road. Having a player on your roster that you can say was drafted in the 3rd round of the NFL Draft vs the 4th round does make a difference. It's harder to sell that player in a trade when they're drafted after the first three rounds. Now, go see what rookie picks you currently have and start planning ahead.
Enjoy the draft everyone.
If you are interested in playing year round fantasy football, consider joining a dynasty league. The offseason is just as fun as the regular season. Once you start playing dynasty, redraft leagues will feel like a cake walk. Click here to learn more about what a dynasty league is and how it differs from your traditional fantasy football league, and if you're interested in finding a league, shoot me an email.