by Big League Fantasy

Jalen Hurts: Jalen Hurts is an enigma of a Fantasy Football asset. He brings obvious upside due to his rushing ability and showed that with his insanely high floor + QB6 finish on a PPG basis. Pair that with the new addition of A.J. Brown, Jalen Hurts is due for an even better year. Want to hear a crazy stat? Jalen Hurts was a QB1 every week of the 2021 season for the first 12 weeks. If you had Hurts on your team you could play him and know you would have production every single week regardless of matchup. Even with Hurts having such a great year, there is still room to grow. The Eagles were 29th in passing plays called per game so if we see an uptick in this at all, Hurts is due for even more. In addition, Jalen Hurts was either number one or number 2 in every major rushing statistic for QBs + was #1 out of all QBs in fantasy points per dropback. Overall, Hurts comes jam packed with a solid floor and great ceiling due to his rushing upside. The Eagles offense as a whole is where some worry comes from, but the addition of A.J. Brown can hopefully clear those worries. Hurts has the potential to finish as the QB1 overall.

A.J. Brown: A.J. Brown is an elite talent and is moving from one offense that runs first and plays at a slow pace, to another offense that runs first and plays at a slow pace. Many see this and think that A.J. Brown shouldbe valued relatively similar, a low-end WR1 with a lower floor but game-breaking potential. This is partially the case, as the move to the Eagles has brought his value down, even if it was slight. While the situations seem the same on paper, the Eagles have Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert to also feed on that offense. The Titans had a currently-injured Robert Woods and not much else. In addition, while Hurts is incredible for fantasy purposes he is not the pure passer that Ryan Tannehill is. A.J. Brown still possesses insane upside but the expectation should be tempered as he should be instead seen as a mid-WR2 for 2022.

DeVonta Smith: Ja’Marr Chase and Jaylen Waddle were absolutely stellar in their rookie campaigns. Because of this, DeVonta Smith’s great year was overlooked completely. Smith finished the year with an acceptable 103 targets over the full football season. I would not be surprised if the Smith’s target numbers go up even with the addition of Brown to the offense. While I see Brown as low-target and high-efficient, I think Smith can be high-target and moderately efficient. One of the most overlooked stats pertaining to DeVonta Smith was that he was top-6 in the NFL in terms of aDOT. He was only behind some big-play guys like DeSean Jackson, Donovan Peoples-Jones and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Smith should continue to improve off a solid rookie year and should become a value as he drops down ADP due to Brown joining the team.

Dallas Goedert: Goedert found himself as a mid-TE1 for the 2021 season averagin around 12 PPG. Goedert was finally able to leave Zach Ertz’s shadow and breakout as a tight end, so where does that leave him for the 2022 season? Sadly, the player that probably gets hurt the most from the A.J. Brown trade is Goedert himself. Goedert had high efficiency stats but I don’t see a way he gains any more opportunity with Brown on that team. Hurts would need to throw the ball 100+ more times to get Goedert in a better situation and the odds of that drastic of a leap is slim. While Goedert should still be a solid floor piece with touchdown upside, he is in the back-end TE1 conversation along with many other players.

Miles Sanders: We all know Miles Sanders possesses the talent to be a high-celibar RB in the NFL. However, practically every other factor is working against him and the outlook for the 2022 NFL season is not looking bright. The Eagles have brought in one of the best redzone threats in the league with A.J. Brown. In addition, Jalen Hurts will continue to vulture TDs at the goal line, which was the biggest reason Sanders finished 2021 with Zero touchdowns in 2021. While positive TD regression is bound to happen, I would not get my hopes up as the Eagles coaching staff will randomly take Sanders out of their gameplan almost on a whim. Again, the talent is there, but Sanders will be a headache to have in 2022 due to the rest of the risks involved.

Kenneth Gainwell: Gainwell has all of the same concerns that Sanders possesses… at a much better ADP. Gainwell was the RB of choice for Hurts to be utilized in the passing game. Due to Gainwell’s pass-catching ability, he provides a solid floor even as the RB2 on his own team. In addition, he is an Miles Sanders injury away to being a very valuable player for fantasy purposes. In 2021, Gainwell was 7th in fantasy points per opportunity. Kenneth Gainwell was wildly efficient for fantasy purposes and can reach even higher if the Eagles decide to utilize him to a larger extent.

Big League Fantasy is a fantasy-football analyst who writes for The Football Guys as well as his own Instagram page @BigLeagueFantasy

Leave a comment